- λ home
- 1.02
- λ away
- 1.96
- Σλ total
- 2.98
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Kepezspor vs Balıkesirspor prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kepezspor v Balıkesirspor: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kepezspor v Balıkesirspor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kepezspor (home) | 1.50 | 0.68 | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Balıkesirspor (away) | 1.31 | 1.60 | 0.95 | 2.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.50 × 0.68 × 1.14 ≈ 1.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.17 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.39 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.98 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.02, λaway = 1.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 59.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kepezspor | 21.5% | 21.0% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| X Draw | 22.5% | 16.0% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| 2 Balıkesirspor | 56.0% | 63.0% | 56.8% | 60.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kepezspor | 20.3% | 4.92 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -6.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.18 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -27.9% | |
| 2 · Balıkesirspor | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 39.6% | 2.52 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -18.0% | |
| X2 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -11.6% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kepezspor | 25.2% | 3.97 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Balıkesirspor | 74.8% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -4.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.2% | 4.12 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -22.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -0.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -15.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.17 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +0.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -13.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -21.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.2% | 5.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.4% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.043 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kepezspor | Balıkesirspor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLL | WDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Balıkesirspor favoured on the road at 60% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Kepezspor 14th on 8, Balıkesirspor 3rd on 23.
Form
Kepezspor, last six: L W W L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Eskişehirspor. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sequence for Balıkesirspor: W D W W D W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Gaziemirspor. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kepezspor 1.02 · Balıkesirspor 1.96 · total 2.98. High total: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Kepezspor 1–2 Balıkesirspor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Lig Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eskişehirspor | 11 | +21 | 24 |
| 2 |  Etimesgut SK | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 3 |  Balıkesirspor | 11 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 |  Nilüfer Belediye | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 5 |  Anadolu Üniversitesi | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 6 |  Karsiyaka | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 7 |  Ayvalikgucu | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 8 |  Bigaspor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 9 |  Bursa Yıldırımspor | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 10 |  Gaziemirspor | 11 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 |  Altay | 11 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 |  Söke 1970 | 11 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bucaspor 1928 | 11 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |  Kepezspor | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Denizli İYG | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 |  Alanya 1221 FK | 11 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 |  Uşak Spor | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |  Akşehirspor | 11 | -20 | 4 |
More 3. Lig Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kepezspor vs Balıkesirspor?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kepezspor v Balıkesirspor probabilities?
Kepezspor win 20%, draw 19%, Balıkesirspor win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Kepezspor vs Balıkesirspor?
Kepezspor 1–2 Balıkesirspor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kepezspor vs Balıkesirspor?
Kepezspor 1.02, Balıkesirspor 1.96 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Kepezspor vs Balıkesirspor?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – 3. Lig Group 2.