- λ home
- 1.80
- λ away
- 1.66
- Σλ total
- 3.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 70%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.4%
Dobrovce vs Ljutomer prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Dobrovce v Ljutomer: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Dobrovce v Ljutomer are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (16 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dobrovce (home) | 1.66 | 0.88 | 1.18 | 1.72 |
| Ljutomer (away) | 1.38 | 0.68 | 1.41 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.88 × 1.18 ≈ 1.72
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.45 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.80, λaway = 1.66
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dobrovce | 46.4% | 46.0% | 39.1% | 43.1% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 16.0% | 24.7% | 19.7% |
| 2 Ljutomer | 28.9% | 38.0% | 36.2% | 37.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Dobrovce | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -1.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Ljutomer | 37.2% | 2.68 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -8.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -12.1% | |
| X2 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -16.3% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.24 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -4.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Dobrovce | 53.6% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ljutomer | 46.4% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.1% | 7.11 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -9.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.6% | 2.15 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -10.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -6.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 29.7% | 3.37 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -14.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.4% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.0% | 3.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.670 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.095 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Dobrovce | Ljutomer |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLWL | LDLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Dobrovce 43%, draw 20%, Ljutomer 37%. Standings: Dobrovce 11th on 10, Ljutomer 12th on 9.
Form
Dobrovce have one win from their last six (L L D L W L). Latest: 1–2 at home to Podvinci. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Ljutomer, last six: L D L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–4 away at Fužinar. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Ljutomer 3–0 Dobrovce. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Dobrovce 1.80 · Ljutomer 1.66 · total 3.45. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 70% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: Dobrovce 2–1 Ljutomer. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Aug 2026Ljutomer3–0Dobrovce
3. SNL East table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Odranci | 13 | +26 | 32 |
| 2 |  NK Ormoz | 13 | +13 | 28 |
| 3 |  Fužinar | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  Šmartno | 13 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |  Podvinci | 13 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Videm | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 |  Rače | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  Čarda Martjanci | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Korotan Prevalje | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Hajdina | 13 | -5 | 16 |
| 11 |  Dobrovce | 13 | -15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Ljutomer | 13 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 |  Limbuš Pekre | 13 | -16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Šampion Celje | 13 | -15 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Dobrovce vs Ljutomer?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Dobrovce v Ljutomer probabilities?
Dobrovce win 43%, draw 20%, Ljutomer win 37%.
What is the most probable score for Dobrovce vs Ljutomer?
Dobrovce 2–1 Ljutomer is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Dobrovce vs Ljutomer?
Dobrovce 1.80, Ljutomer 1.66 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 70%.
What time is Dobrovce vs Ljutomer?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 3. SNL East.