England EFL Trophy Tue 10 Nov 2026 · Kassam Stadium Full time

Oxford United

DWDWL

4–0

Half-time 0–0

Cheltenham

LWWLW

69%P(1)20%P(X)11%P(2)

λ home: 2.76
λ away: 1.14
Σλ total: 3.90
P(over 2.5): 72%
P(BTTS): 61%
Modal score: 2–1 8.8%

Oxford United vs Cheltenham prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Oxford United v Cheltenham: how the Arena called it

Full time: 4–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Oxford United v Cheltenham are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Oxford United (home)	1.66	1.26	1.08	2.27
Cheltenham (away)	1.38	1.06	0.58	0.85

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 1.26 × 1.08 ≈ 2.27

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.12	45%
Statistical xG feed	4.33	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.55	30%
Blended total λ	3.90	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.76, λ_away = 1.14

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Oxford United λ = 2.76

06.3%

117.5%

224.1%

322.2%

415.3%

5+14.6%

Cheltenham λ = 1.14

031.9%

136.4%

220.8%

37.9%

42.3%

5+0.6%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Oxf \ Che012345+

02.02.31.30.5··

15.66.43.61.4··

27.78.85.01.90.5·

37.18.14.61.80.5·

44.95.63.21.2··

5+4.75.33.01.2··

Σ home-win cells: 71.2%
Σ draw cells: 15.6%
Σ away-win cells: 13.2%
Most probable score: 2–1 · 8.8%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Oxford United	68.7%	65.0%	74.2%	68.9%
X Draw	19.0%	24.0%	15.1%	20.3%
2 Cheltenham	12.3%	11.0%	10.7%	10.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.104 → 10.4% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Oxford United	68.9%	1.45	1.22	82.0%	-16.0%
X · Draw	20.3%	4.94	6.00	16.7%	+21.6%
2 · Cheltenham	10.9%	9.21	8.50	11.8%	-7.7%
Double chance
1X	89.1%	1.12	1.03	97.1%	-8.2%
X2	31.1%	3.21	3.60	27.8%	+12.0%
12	79.7%	1.25	1.08	92.6%	-13.9%
Draw no bet
DNB Oxford United	86.4%	1.16	–	–	–
DNB Cheltenham	13.6%	7.35	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	87.8%	1.14	1.10	90.9%	-3.4%
Under 1.5	12.2%	8.21	6.50	15.4%	-20.8%
Over 2.5	71.8%	1.39	1.36	73.5%	-2.4%
Under 2.5	28.2%	3.54	3.00	33.3%	-15.3%
Over 3.5	52.4%	1.91	1.83	54.6%	-4.2%
Under 3.5	47.6%	2.10	1.83	54.6%	-12.8%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	61.1%	1.64	1.80	55.6%	+10.0%
BTTS no	38.9%	2.57	1.91	52.4%	-25.7%
Half-time
HT 1	53.9%	1.86	–	–	–
HT X	30.8%	3.25	–	–	–
HT 2	15.4%	6.50	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability61.1%

Fair odds1.64

Best odds1.80

EV per unit+10.0%

EV = 0.611 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.100 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.125 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Oxford United	Cheltenham
Sequence	LWDWDW	WLWWLD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	3-1-2
Points per match	1.83	1.67
Goals for / match	1.00	1.83
Goals against / match	0.50	1.83
Over 2.5	17%	67%
BTTS	33%	67%
Clean sheets	50%	33%
Failed to score	33%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Oxford United at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.

Form

Oxford United, last six: L W D W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Stevenage. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Cheltenham, last six: W L W W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to FC Halifax Town. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Oxford United 2.76 · Cheltenham 1.14 · total 3.90. High total: over 2.5 72%, BTTS 61%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.64. Most probable score: Oxford United 2–1 Cheltenham. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.