- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 2.09
- Σλ total
- 3.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.6%
Landsberg vs Nürnberg II prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Landsberg 23% · draw 21% · Nürnberg II 56%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Landsberg v Nürnberg II: what are you seeing?
- 54′
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Landsberg v Nürnberg II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landsberg (home) | 1.65 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 1.39 |
| Nürnberg II (away) | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 2.24 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.65 × 0.97 × 0.87 ≈ 1.39
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.35 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.04 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 2.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 23.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Landsberg | 23.1% | 16.0% | 26.8% | 23.0% |
| X Draw | 20.8% | 16.0% | 23.8% | 20.9% |
| 2 Nürnberg II | 56.1% | 68.0% | 49.5% | 56.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Landsberg | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -22.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.79 | 26.4% | -20.7% | |
| 2 · Nürnberg II | 56.1% | 1.78 | 1.82 | 54.9% | +2.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.9% | 2.28 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -22.7% | |
| X2 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.1% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -8.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Landsberg | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nürnberg II | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.9% | 6.73 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -3.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -16.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.55 | 39.2% | +1.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -14.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -15.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.7% | 4.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.0% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.3% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.621 × 1.56 − 1 = -0.031 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Landsberg | Nürnberg II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLDLD | WLDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Nürnberg II narrowly ahead at 56%; Landsberg 23%. Standings: Landsberg 19th on 13, Nürnberg II 10th on 24.
Form
Landsberg have one win from their last six (W D L D L D). Latest: 3–2 away at Vilzing. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Nürnberg II have three wins from their last six (W L D D W W). Latest: 3–2 at home to Eichstätt. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Landsberg 1.29 · Nürnberg II 2.09 · total 3.38. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 62%, odds 1.56 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Landsberg 1–2 Nürnberg II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Regionalliga Bayern table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memmingen | 18 | +13 | 39 |
| 2 |  TSV 1860 München | 18 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Buchbach | 18 | +8 | 32 |
| 4 |  Illertissen | 18 | +13 | 29 |
| 5 |  SpVgg Unterhaching | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bayreuth | 18 | +10 | 28 |
| 7 |  Augsburg II | 18 | -4 | 25 |
| 8 |  Schwaben Augsburg | 18 | -6 | 25 |
| 9 |  Bayern München II | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 10 |  Nürnberg II | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 11 |  Eichstätt | 18 | -6 | 24 |
| 12 |  Wacker Burghausen | 18 | +6 | 23 |
| 13 |  Eltersdorf | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Vilzing | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 15 |  FC Schweinfurt 05 | 18 | -10 | 21 |
| 16 |  Ansbach | 17 | -16 | 16 |
| 17 |  Aubstadt | 18 | -7 | 15 |
| 18 |  Greuther Fürth II | 18 | -12 | 14 |
| 19 |  Landsberg | 17 | -15 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Landsberg vs Nürnberg II?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.56 by the bookmakers.
What are the Landsberg v Nürnberg II probabilities?
Landsberg win 23%, draw 21%, Nürnberg II win 56%.
What is the most probable score for Landsberg vs Nürnberg II?
Landsberg 1–2 Nürnberg II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Landsberg vs Nürnberg II?
Landsberg 1.29, Nürnberg II 2.09 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Landsberg vs Nürnberg II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Regionalliga Bayern.