- λ home
- 1.44
- λ away
- 1.22
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Aubstadt vs Eltersdorf prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Aubstadt v Eltersdorf: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Aubstadt v Eltersdorf are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubstadt (home) | 1.65 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| Eltersdorf (away) | 1.30 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.23 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.65 × 0.75 × 1.00 ≈ 1.24
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.47 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.71 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.44, λaway = 1.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aubstadt | 35.9% | 49.0% | 38.2% | 44.5% |
| X Draw | 28.6% | 17.0% | 26.4% | 20.9% |
| 2 Eltersdorf | 35.5% | 34.0% | 35.4% | 34.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aubstadt | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.33 | 42.9% | +3.6% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.77 | 3.37 | 29.7% | -29.4% | |
| 2 · Eltersdorf | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.51 | 39.8% | -13.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -9.8% | |
| X2 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -20.0% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aubstadt | 56.2% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Eltersdorf | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -9.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.1% | 2.03 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -7.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -9.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.2% | 3.68 | 3.44 | 29.1% | -6.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -9.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.71 | 58.5% | +1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.6% | 2.47 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.7% | 3.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.71 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.023 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aubstadt | Eltersdorf |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDLDD | LLLDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Aubstadt 44%, draw 21%, Eltersdorf 35%. Standings: Aubstadt 17th on 15, Eltersdorf 13th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Aubstadt: D W D L D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Greuther Fürth II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Eltersdorf have zero wins from their last six (L L L D D D). Latest: 0–1 at home to TSV 1860 München. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aubstadt 1.44 · Eltersdorf 1.22 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.71 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Aubstadt 2–1 Eltersdorf. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Regionalliga Bayern table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Memmingen | 18 | +13 | 39 |
| 2 |  TSV 1860 München | 18 | +14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Buchbach | 18 | +8 | 32 |
| 4 |  Illertissen | 18 | +13 | 29 |
| 5 |  SpVgg Unterhaching | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bayreuth | 18 | +10 | 28 |
| 7 |  Augsburg II | 18 | -4 | 25 |
| 8 |  Schwaben Augsburg | 18 | -6 | 25 |
| 9 |  Bayern München II | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 10 |  Nürnberg II | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 11 |  Eichstätt | 18 | -6 | 24 |
| 12 |  Wacker Burghausen | 18 | +6 | 23 |
| 13 |  Eltersdorf | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Vilzing | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 15 |  FC Schweinfurt 05 | 18 | -10 | 21 |
| 16 |  Ansbach | 17 | -16 | 16 |
| 17 |  Aubstadt | 18 | -7 | 15 |
| 18 |  Greuther Fürth II | 18 | -12 | 14 |
| 19 |  Landsberg | 17 | -15 | 13 |
More Regionalliga Bayern predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aubstadt vs Eltersdorf?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.71 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aubstadt v Eltersdorf probabilities?
Aubstadt win 44%, draw 21%, Eltersdorf win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Aubstadt vs Eltersdorf?
Aubstadt 2–1 Eltersdorf is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aubstadt vs Eltersdorf?
Aubstadt 1.44, Eltersdorf 1.22 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Aubstadt vs Eltersdorf?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Regionalliga Bayern.