- λ home
- 1.93
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–0 10.8%
Nantes W vs Lens W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Nantes W v Lens W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Nantes W v Lens W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (15 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes W (home) | 1.66 | 0.89 | 1.27 | 1.88 |
| Lens W (away) | 1.38 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.89 × 1.27 ≈ 1.88
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.62 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.93, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nantes W | 63.3% | 63.0% | 56.3% | 60.2% |
| X Draw | 22.8% | 21.0% | 23.3% | 22.0% |
| 2 Lens W | 13.9% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 17.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.131 → 13.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Nantes W | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.0% | 4.56 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -16.6% | |
| 2 · Lens W | 17.9% | 5.60 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -22.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.4% | |
| X2 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -14.4% | |
| 12 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Nantes W | 77.1% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lens W | 22.9% | 4.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -6.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.7% | 4.60 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -5.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -4.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -10.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +1.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -17.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.1% | 5.83 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.587 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.015 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.021 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Nantes W | Lens W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWWDL | LDDLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Nantes W 60% to win. Standings: Nantes W 6th on 12, Lens W 12th on 3.
Form
Nantes W have two wins from their last six (D L W W D L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Toulouse W. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Lens W: L D D L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–7 at home to Lyon W. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Nantes W 1.93 · Lens W 0.95 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Nantes W 2–1 Lens W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Feminine Division 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon W | 9 | +43 | 27 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain W | 9 | +10 | 22 |
| 3 |  Paris FC W | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  FC Fleury 91 W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 |  Marseille W | 9 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Nantes W | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  Strasbourg W | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Le Havre W | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Montpellier W | 9 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 |  Toulouse W | 9 | -21 | 5 |
| 11 |  Saint-Malo W | 8 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 |  Lens W | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Nantes W vs Lens W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Nantes W v Lens W probabilities?
Nantes W win 60%, draw 22%, Lens W win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Nantes W vs Lens W?
Nantes W 2–1 Lens W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Nantes W vs Lens W?
Nantes W 1.93, Lens W 0.95 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Nantes W vs Lens W?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Stade Marcel Saupin – Feminine Division 1.