- λ home
- 0.98
- λ away
- 1.72
- Σλ total
- 2.70
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.6%
Mashuk-KMV vs Rodina Moskva II prediction & xG model: Rodina Moskva II to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Mashuk-KMV v Rodina Moskva II: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipRodina Moskva II to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Mashuk-KMV v Rodina Moskva II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (35 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mashuk-KMV (home) | 1.31 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 1.42 |
| Rodina Moskva II (away) | 1.05 | 1.21 | 0.77 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.31 × 0.98 × 1.10 ≈ 1.42
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.39 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.34 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.00 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.70 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.98, λaway = 1.72
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 54.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mashuk-KMV | 46.2% | 21.0% | 26.5% | 23.3% |
| X Draw | 28.3% | 15.0% | 26.4% | 19.8% |
| 2 Rodina Moskva II | 25.6% | 64.0% | 47.1% | 56.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mashuk-KMV | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -21.7% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -33.2% | |
| 2 · Rodina Moskva II pick | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.89 | 52.9% | +7.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.1% | 2.32 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -27.2% | |
| X2 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.4% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mashuk-KMV | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rodina Moskva II | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -11.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | 4.25 | 23.5% | -1.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -13.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 2.17 | 46.1% | -0.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -20.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -3.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -10.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -6.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 19.0% | 5.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 39.8% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.569 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.076 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.085 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mashuk-KMV | Rodina Moskva II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDDDD | DLDWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-6-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 57% against 23%. Standings: Mashuk-KMV 6th on 21, Rodina Moskva II 2nd on 31.
Form
Mashuk-KMV have zero wins from their last six (D D D D D D). Latest: 1–1 away at Novosibirsk. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Rodina Moskva II, last six: D L D W W L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Dinamo Kirov. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Mashuk-KMV 0, Rodina Moskva II 1, drawn 2, 2.7 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Rodina Moskva II 3–1 Mashuk-KMV. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mashuk-KMV 0.98 · Rodina Moskva II 1.72 · total 2.70. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Rodina Moskva II to win, probability 57%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Mashuk-KMV 0–1 Rodina Moskva II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Sep 2026Rodina Moskva II3–1Mashuk-KMV
- 23 May 2026Mashuk-KMV2–2Rodina Moskva II
- 4 Apr 2026Rodina Moskva II0–0Mashuk-KMV
Second League A Fall Season Gold table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Kirov | 17 | +12 | 34 |
| 2 |  Rodina Moskva II | 17 | +8 | 31 |
| 3 |  Dinamo Vladivostok | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 17 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |  Novosibirsk | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Mashuk-KMV | 17 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  FK Sokol Saratov | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 8 |  Dinamo Bryansk | 17 | -10 | 19 |
| 9 |  Volgar Astrakhan | 17 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 |  Kaluga | 17 | -9 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mashuk-KMV vs Rodina Moskva II?
The Model pick is Rodina Moskva II to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.89 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mashuk-KMV v Rodina Moskva II probabilities?
Mashuk-KMV win 23%, draw 20%, Rodina Moskva II win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Mashuk-KMV vs Rodina Moskva II?
Mashuk-KMV 0–1 Rodina Moskva II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mashuk-KMV vs Rodina Moskva II?
Mashuk-KMV 0.98, Rodina Moskva II 1.72 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Mashuk-KMV vs Rodina Moskva II?
Monday 9 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Central Stadium – Second League A Fall Season Gold.