Panama Liga Panameña De Fútbol Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Estadio Javier Cruz Full time

CD Arabe Unido

DLDLD

38%P(1)23%P(X)39%P(2)

λ home: 1.16
λ away: 1.18
Σλ total: 2.34
P(over 2.5): 42%
P(BTTS): 55%
Modal score: 1–1 13.2%

Sporting San Miguelito vs CD Arabe Unido prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Sporting San Miguelito v CD Arabe Unido: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Sporting San Miguelito v CD Arabe Unido are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (27 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Sporting San Miguelito (home)	1.66	0.79	0.76	1.00
CD Arabe Unido (away)	1.38	0.83	0.84	0.96

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.79 × 0.76 ≈ 1.00

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	1.96	45%
Statistical xG feed	2.32	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.36	30%
Blended total λ	2.34	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.16, λ_away = 1.18

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Sporting San Miguelito λ = 1.16

031.2%

136.3%

221.2%

38.2%

42.4%

5+0.7%

CD Arabe Unido λ = 1.18

030.8%

136.3%

221.4%

38.4%

42.5%

5+0.7%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Spo \ CD 012345+

09.6116.72.60.8·

111137.83.10.9·

26.57.74.51.80.5·

32.53.01.80.7··

40.70.90.5···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 35.6%
Σ draw cells: 28.1%
Σ away-win cells: 36.3%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 13.2%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Sporting San Miguelito	34.7%	40.0%	35.6%	38.2%
X Draw	32.9%	18.0%	29.8%	23.0%
2 CD Arabe Unido	32.4%	42.0%	34.5%	38.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Sporting San Miguelito	38.2%	2.62	2.50	40.0%	-4.6%
X · Draw	23.0%	4.36	2.99	33.4%	-31.4%
2 · CD Arabe Unido	38.9%	2.57	2.58	38.8%	+0.3%
Double chance
1X	61.1%	1.64	1.36	73.5%	-16.9%
X2	61.8%	1.62	1.39	71.9%	-14.1%
12	77.0%	1.30	1.28	78.1%	-1.4%
Draw no bet
DNB Sporting San Miguelito	49.5%	2.02	–	–	–
DNB CD Arabe Unido	50.5%	1.98	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	67.2%	1.49	1.36	73.5%	-8.6%
Under 1.5	32.8%	3.05	2.70	37.0%	-11.4%
Over 2.5	41.8%	2.39	2.18	45.9%	-8.9%
Under 2.5	58.2%	1.72	1.58	63.3%	-8.0%
Over 3.5	21.8%	4.59	4.00	25.0%	-12.9%
Under 3.5	78.2%	1.28	1.17	85.5%	-8.5%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	55.4%	1.80	1.87	53.5%	+3.6%
BTTS no	44.6%	2.24	1.77	56.5%	-21.1%
Half-time
HT 1	26.9%	3.72	–	–	–
HT X	45.8%	2.18	–	–	–
HT 2	27.3%	3.66	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability55.4%

Fair odds1.80

Best odds1.87

EV per unit+3.6%

EV = 0.554 × 1.87 − 1 = +0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.042 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Sporting San Miguelito	CD Arabe Unido
Sequence	WDWLWD	DLDLDW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-2-1	1-3-2
Points per match	1.83	1.00
Goals for / match	1.50	1.00
Goals against / match	1.00	1.50
Over 2.5	50%	33%
BTTS	67%	83%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	33%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Probabilities are almost level: 38 / 23 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Sporting San Miguelito 8th on 20, CD Arabe Unido 3rd on 27.

Form

Sporting San Miguelito, last six: W D W L W D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Plaza Amador. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded.

CD Arabe Unido have one win from their last six (D L D L D W). Latest: 1–1 away at Alianza FC. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Previous 2: Sporting San Miguelito 0, CD Arabe Unido 2, drawn 0, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): CD Arabe Unido 1–0 Sporting San Miguelito. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Sporting San Miguelito 1.16 · CD Arabe Unido 1.18 · total 2.34. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 55%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.87 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Sporting San Miguelito 1–2 CD Arabe Unido. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

22 Aug 2026CD Arabe Unido1–0Sporting San Miguelito
6 Apr 2026CD Arabe Unido1–0Sporting San Miguelito

Liga Panameña De Fútbol table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	16	9	4	3	+12	31
2	Alianza FC	16	6	9	1	+6	27
3	UMECIT	16	6	7	3	+8	25
4	Veraguas	16	7	4	5	+3	25
5	Union Cocle	16	5	8	3	+5	23
6	Tauro FC	16	5	6	5	+3	21
7	CD Arabe Unido	16	6	3	7	-4	21
8	Independiente de La Chorrera	16	4	8	4	+4	20
9	San Francisco FC	16	5	5	6	-3	20
10	Sporting San Miguelito	16	4	6	6	-2	18
11	Deportivo Universitario	16	3	5	8	-8	14
12	Herrera	16	1	5	10	-24	8