- λ home
- 2.38
- λ away
- 1.43
- Σλ total
- 3.81
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.0%
FC 08 Villingen vs Teningen prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC 08 Villingen v Teningen: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC 08 Villingen v Teningen are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC 08 Villingen (home) | 1.66 | 1.07 | 1.53 | 2.73 |
| Teningen (away) | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 1.25 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.07 × 1.53 ≈ 2.73
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.98 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.77 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.84 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.81 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.38, λaway = 1.43
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC 08 Villingen | 68.1% | 56.0% | 68.9% | 61.4% |
| X Draw | 16.9% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 13.5% |
| 2 Teningen | 15.0% | 33.0% | 14.2% | 25.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC 08 Villingen | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -19.5% | |
| X · Draw | 13.5% | 7.42 | 5.34 | 18.7% | -28.0% | |
| 2 · Teningen | 25.1% | 3.98 | 6.35 | 15.7% | +59.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.9% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.84 | 35.2% | +9.6% | |
| 12 | 86.5% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC 08 Villingen | 71.0% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Teningen | 29.0% | 3.45 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.3% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.7% | 9.35 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3.47 | 28.8% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 pick | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -8.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -16.0% | |
| BTTS no | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2.60 | 38.5% | +5.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.3% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.530 × 1.72 − 1 = -0.088 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC 08 Villingen | Teningen |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWLWW | LLDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FC 08 Villingen 61% to win. Standings: FC 08 Villingen 3rd on 33, Teningen 16th on 13.
Form
Sequence for FC 08 Villingen: W D W L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at 1. FC Muhlhausen. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Teningen have zero wins from their last six (L L D L L L). Latest: 1–4 at home to FC Nöttingen. Per match: 1.5 scored, 3.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC 08 Villingen 2.38 · Teningen 1.43 · total 3.81. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.72 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: FC 08 Villingen 3–1 Teningen. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Oberliga Baden Württemberg table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Backnang | 16 | +21 | 37 |
| 2 |  Oberachern | 16 | +19 | 34 |
| 3 |  FC 08 Villingen | 16 | +12 | 33 |
| 4 |  Bahlinger SC | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 5 |  Reutlingen | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 |  Karlsruhe II | 16 | +1 | 26 |
| 7 |  FV Ravensburg | 16 | +10 | 23 |
| 8 |  Young Boys Reutlingen | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 9 |  Balingen | 16 | +1 | 22 |
| 10 |  1. FC Muhlhausen | 16 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 |  FC Holzhausen | 16 | -3 | 21 |
| 12 |  CFR Pforzheim | 16 | -3 | 21 |
| 13 |  Essingen | 16 | -8 | 16 |
| 14 |  FC Nöttingen | 16 | +6 | 15 |
| 15 |  TSV Singen | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 |  Teningen | 16 | -17 | 13 |
| 17 |  Türkspor Neckarsulm | 16 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 |  Normannia Gmünd | 16 | -27 | 6 |
More Oberliga Baden Württemberg predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC 08 Villingen vs Teningen?
The Model pick is Over 3.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.72 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC 08 Villingen v Teningen probabilities?
FC 08 Villingen win 61%, draw 13%, Teningen win 25%.
What is the most probable score for FC 08 Villingen vs Teningen?
FC 08 Villingen 3–1 Teningen is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC 08 Villingen vs Teningen?
FC 08 Villingen 2.38, Teningen 1.43 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is FC 08 Villingen vs Teningen?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Oberliga Baden Württemberg.