- λ home
- 2.46
- λ away
- 1.16
- Σλ total
- 3.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.4%
FC Fleury 91 W vs Toulouse W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Fleury 91 W v Toulouse W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 7–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Fleury 91 W v Toulouse W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (13 and 9 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Fleury 91 W (home) | 1.66 | 1.22 | 1.56 | 3.17 |
| Toulouse W (away) | 1.38 | 0.82 | 0.94 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.22 × 1.56 ≈ 3.17
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.23 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.20 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.15 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.46, λaway = 1.16
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Fleury 91 W | 78.1% | 66.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% |
| X Draw | 12.8% | 24.0% | 23.6% | 23.8% |
| 2 Toulouse W | 9.0% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 13.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Fleury 91 W | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.8% | |
| X · Draw | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -9.5% | |
| 2 · Toulouse W | 13.3% | 7.51 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -33.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.7% | 1.15 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -4.7% | |
| X2 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -3.4% | |
| 12 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -10.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Fleury 91 W | 82.5% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Toulouse W | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.5% | 6.07 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -25.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +0.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -17.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +1.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -13.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +7.8% | |
| BTTS no | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -25.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.5% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.2% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.3% | 5.77 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.645 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.078 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.116 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Fleury 91 W | Toulouse W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDLWD | DWLLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FC Fleury 91 W 63% to win. Standings: FC Fleury 91 W 4th on 15, Toulouse W 10th on 5.
Form
FC Fleury 91 W have two wins from their last six (W D D L W D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Strasbourg W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Toulouse W, last six: D W L L D L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Nantes W. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Fleury 91 W 2.46 · Toulouse W 1.16 · total 3.63. Goals expected – 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: FC Fleury 91 W 2–1 Toulouse W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Feminine Division 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon W | 9 | +43 | 27 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain W | 9 | +10 | 22 |
| 3 |  Paris FC W | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 |  FC Fleury 91 W | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 |  Marseille W | 9 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Nantes W | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  Strasbourg W | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Le Havre W | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Montpellier W | 9 | -7 | 6 |
| 10 |  Toulouse W | 9 | -21 | 5 |
| 11 |  Saint-Malo W | 8 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 |  Lens W | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Fleury 91 W vs Toulouse W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Fleury 91 W v Toulouse W probabilities?
FC Fleury 91 W win 63%, draw 24%, Toulouse W win 13%.
What is the most probable score for FC Fleury 91 W vs Toulouse W?
FC Fleury 91 W 2–1 Toulouse W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Fleury 91 W vs Toulouse W?
FC Fleury 91 W 2.46, Toulouse W 1.16 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is FC Fleury 91 W vs Toulouse W?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 17:00 WAT, at Stade Auguste Gentelet – Feminine Division 1.