- λ home
- 2.66
- λ away
- 1.32
- Σλ total
- 3.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 74%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.7%
Swansea University vs Treowen Stars prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Swansea University v Treowen Stars: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Swansea University v Treowen Stars are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (12 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea University (home) | 1.66 | 1.49 | 1.18 | 2.92 |
| Treowen Stars (away) | 1.38 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.55 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.49 × 1.18 ≈ 2.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.47 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.26 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.76 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.66, λaway = 1.32
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Swansea University | 65.4% | 65.0% | 61.5% | 63.5% |
| X Draw | 16.6% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 21.8% |
| 2 Treowen Stars | 18.0% | 12.0% | 18.4% | 14.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.130 → 13.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Swansea University | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.8% | 4.59 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -4.1% | |
| 2 · Treowen Stars | 14.7% | 6.80 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -29.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -2.8% | |
| X2 | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -8.8% | |
| 12 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Swansea University | 81.2% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Treowen Stars | 18.8% | 5.32 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.7% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.3% | 10.79 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -7.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.8% | 3.87 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -15.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -5.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -10.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -0.1% | |
| BTTS no | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.3% | 3.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.4% | 5.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.666 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Swansea University | Treowen Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDWDW | DWLLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Swansea University at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Swansea University 3rd on 24, Treowen Stars 5th on 20.
Form
Swansea University have three wins from their last six (W L D W D W). Latest: 2–0 at home to Cardiff Draconians. 2.7 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Treowen Stars, last six: D W L L L D – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Newport City. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Swansea University 2.66 · Treowen Stars 1.32 · total 3.99. High total: over 2.5 74%, BTTS 67%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Swansea University 2–1 Treowen Stars. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
FAW Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pontypridd Town | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Swansea University | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 4 |  Caerau (Ely) | 13 | +1 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treowen Stars | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 6 |  Baglan Dragons | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 |  Ynyshir Albions | 11 | +7 | 19 |
| 8 |  Afan Lido | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 13 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 |  Pontardawe Town | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Newport City | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Llantwit Major | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 |  llanelli AFC | 14 | -31 | 3 |
More FAW Championship predictions
League page →
Denbigh Town7
Gresford Athletic1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Swansea University vs Treowen Stars?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Swansea University v Treowen Stars probabilities?
Swansea University win 64%, draw 22%, Treowen Stars win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Swansea University vs Treowen Stars?
Swansea University 2–1 Treowen Stars is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Swansea University vs Treowen Stars?
Swansea University 2.66, Treowen Stars 1.32 – over 2.5 at 74%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Swansea University vs Treowen Stars?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:30 WAT – FAW Championship.