- λ home
- 0.99
- λ away
- 1.46
- Σλ total
- 2.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.6%
Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Volga Ulyanovsk v Torpedo Moskva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Volga Ulyanovsk v Torpedo Moskva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volga Ulyanovsk (home) | 1.47 | 0.87 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
| Torpedo Moskva (away) | 1.16 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 1.30 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.47 × 0.87 × 0.65 ≈ 0.83
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.13 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.54 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.38 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.99, λaway = 1.46
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 25.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 47.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Volga Ulyanovsk | 23.3% | 30.0% | 24.1% | 27.5% |
| X Draw | 30.2% | 18.0% | 29.1% | 22.7% |
| 2 Torpedo Moskva | 46.5% | 52.0% | 46.7% | 49.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Volga Ulyanovsk | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.82 | 26.2% | +5.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.16 | 31.6% | -28.3% | |
| 2 · Torpedo Moskva | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -1.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -12.6% | |
| X2 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -11.6% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 76.3% | +1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Volga Ulyanovsk | 35.6% | 2.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Torpedo Moskva | 64.4% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.6% | 3.16 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -14.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.4% | 2.31 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -4.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.3% | 4.28 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -10.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.94 | 51.5% | +5.9% | |
| BTTS no | 45.4% | 2.20 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -20.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.1% | 4.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.6% | 2.89 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.546 × 1.94 − 1 = +0.059 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.062 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Volga Ulyanovsk | Torpedo Moskva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWWD | WDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 50% against 28%. Standings: Volga Ulyanovsk 9th on 22, Torpedo Moskva 2nd on 35.
Form
Volga Ulyanovsk have three wins from their last six (L W D W W D). Latest: 0–2 away at Ural. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Torpedo Moskva have four wins from their last six (W D D W W W). Latest: 1–0 at home to FK Neftekhimik. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Volga Ulyanovsk 0, Torpedo Moskva 2, drawn 0, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Torpedo Moskva 3–1 Volga Ulyanovsk. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Volga Ulyanovsk 0.99 · Torpedo Moskva 1.46 · total 2.45. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.94 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Torpedo Moskva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Jul 2026Torpedo Moskva3–1Volga Ulyanovsk
- 22 Jun 2026Torpedo Moskva1–0Volga Ulyanovsk
First League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Torpedo Moskva | 18 | +17 | 35 |
| 3 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 19 | -4 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.94 by the bookmakers.
What are the Volga Ulyanovsk v Torpedo Moskva probabilities?
Volga Ulyanovsk win 28%, draw 23%, Torpedo Moskva win 50%.
What is the most probable score for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Torpedo Moskva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
Volga Ulyanovsk 0.99, Torpedo Moskva 1.46 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk) – First League.