- λ home
- 1.45
- λ away
- 1.20
- Σλ total
- 2.66
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
Tondela vs Farense prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Tondela 44% · draw 25% · Farense 31%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Tondela v Farense: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Tondela v Farense are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela (home) | 1.33 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.47 |
| Farense (away) | 1.21 | 1.11 | 0.93 | 1.26 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.33 × 1.04 × 1.06 ≈ 1.47
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.72 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.48 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.66 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.45, λaway = 1.20
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tondela | 41.4% | 46.0% | 45.3% | 44.1% |
| X Draw | 26.8% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 25.2% |
| 2 Farense | 31.9% | 36.0% | 26.8% | 30.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tondela | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.03 | 49.3% | -10.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -16.8% | |
| 2 · Farense | 30.7% | 3.26 | 3.44 | 29.1% | +5.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -12.7% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -5.6% | |
| 12 | 74.8% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tondela | 59.0% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Farense | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.0% | 3.57 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -16.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.4% | 2.11 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -2.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.5% | 3.78 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -5.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -11.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.6% | 1.94 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -10.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.2% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.2% | 3.96 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.516 × 1.83 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tondela | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDWW | LDLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tondela ahead at 44%, against 31% for Farense and 25% for the draw. Standings: Tondela 7th on 16, Farense 8th on 15.
Form
Tondela have three wins from their last six (D W L D W W). Latest: 1–1 away at Sporting CP B. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Farense: L D L W W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Benfica B. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tondela 1.45 · Farense 1.20 · total 2.66. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.94. Most probable score: Tondela 2–1 Farense. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penafiel | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Benfica B | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  União de Leiria | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academica | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Farense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Vizela | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Portimonense | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  AVS | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Leixoes | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Torreense | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Chaves | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 10 | -8 | 5 |
More Segunda Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tondela vs Farense?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tondela v Farense probabilities?
Tondela win 44%, draw 25%, Farense win 31%.
What is the most probable score for Tondela vs Farense?
Tondela 2–1 Farense is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tondela vs Farense?
Tondela 1.45, Farense 1.20 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Tondela vs Farense?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Estádio João Cardoso – Segunda Liga.