- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 1.56
- Σλ total
- 2.95
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
VSK Århus vs Middelfart prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: VSK Århus 36% · draw 21% · Middelfart 43%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
VSK Århus v Middelfart: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for VSK Århus v Middelfart are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.03 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.95 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 1.56
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 VSK Århus | – | 36.0% | 35.2% | 35.7% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 27.4% | 21.4% |
| 2 Middelfart | – | 47.0% | 37.4% | 43.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · VSK Århus | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.54 | 39.4% | -9.4% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.68 | 3.26 | 30.7% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Middelfart | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.39 | 41.8% | +2.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -18.4% | |
| X2 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -10.6% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB VSK Århus | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Middelfart | 54.6% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.56 | 3.92 | 25.5% | -14.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -6.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -9.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -9.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -5.0% | |
| BTTS no | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -12.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.2% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.617 × 1.54 − 1 = -0.050 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | VSK Århus | Middelfart |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDDLL | WLDDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Middelfart narrowly ahead at 43%; VSK Århus 36%. Standings: VSK Århus 8th on 20, Middelfart 4th on 22.
Form
Sequence for VSK Århus: L L D D L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–1 away at FA 2000. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Middelfart, last six: W L D D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 3–2 at home to Naestved. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Previous 2: VSK Århus 0, Middelfart 1, drawn 1, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Middelfart 1–1 VSK Århus. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG VSK Århus 1.39 · Middelfart 1.56 · total 2.95. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.54 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: VSK Århus 1–2 Middelfart. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 19 Sep 2026Middelfart1–1VSK Århus
- 18 Jul 2026Middelfart3–0VSK Århus
2. Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roskilde | 16 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nykobing FC | 16 | +18 | 31 |
| 3 |  B 93 | 16 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Middelfart | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 |  Naestved | 15 | +2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Skive | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fremad Amager | 15 | -5 | 21 |
| 8 |  VSK Århus | 15 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Brabrand | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 |  HIK | 16 | -10 | 18 |
| 11 |  FA 2000 | 15 | -14 | 12 |
| 12 |  Thisted FC | 16 | -17 | 10 |
More 2. Division predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for VSK Århus vs Middelfart?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.54 by the bookmakers.
What are the VSK Århus v Middelfart probabilities?
VSK Århus win 36%, draw 21%, Middelfart win 43%.
What is the most probable score for VSK Århus vs Middelfart?
VSK Århus 1–2 Middelfart is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for VSK Århus vs Middelfart?
VSK Århus 1.39, Middelfart 1.56 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is VSK Århus vs Middelfart?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – 2. Division.