- λ home
- 2.10
- λ away
- 1.11
- Σλ total
- 3.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Rheindorf Altach W vs SK Rapid W prediction & xG model: Rheindorf Altach W to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Rheindorf Altach W v SK Rapid W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipRheindorf Altach W to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Rheindorf Altach W v SK Rapid W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 12 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rheindorf Altach W (home) | 1.75 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 2.07 |
| SK Rapid W (away) | 1.50 | 0.64 | 1.10 | 1.05 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.75 × 1.03 × 1.14 ≈ 2.07
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.13 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.26 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.32 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.10, λaway = 1.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rheindorf Altach W | 60.1% | 61.0% | 55.6% | 58.4% |
| X Draw | 21.6% | 19.0% | 22.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 SK Rapid W | 18.2% | 20.0% | 21.9% | 20.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rheindorf Altach W pick | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.4% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.68 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -14.5% | |
| 2 · SK Rapid W | 20.2% | 4.95 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -17.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.3% | |
| X2 | 41.6% | 2.40 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -23.9% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rheindorf Altach W | 74.3% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB SK Rapid W | 25.7% | 3.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.9% | 5.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -4.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -12.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.53 | 39.5% | -3.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.6% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.8% | 5.31 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.584 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.054 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rheindorf Altach W | SK Rapid W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWWW | LWLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Rheindorf Altach W ahead at 58%, against 20% for SK Rapid W and 21% for the draw. Standings: Rheindorf Altach W 5th on 17, SK Rapid W 8th on 10.
Form
Sequence for Rheindorf Altach W: L D L W W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–4 at home to St. Pölten W. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
SK Rapid W, last six: L W L D L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–3 at home to St. Pölten W. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): SK Rapid W 0–1 Rheindorf Altach W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rheindorf Altach W 2.10 · SK Rapid W 1.11 · total 3.22. Goals expected – 63% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Rheindorf Altach W to win, probability 58%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Rheindorf Altach W 2–1 SK Rapid W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 Aug 2026SK Rapid W0–1Rheindorf Altach W
Frauenliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  St. Pölten W | 13 | +33 | 34 |
| 2 |  Sturm Graz W | 13 | +21 | 29 |
| 3 |  Austria Wien W | 11 | +29 | 26 |
| 4 |  Salzburg W | 12 | 0 | 19 |
| 5 |  Rheindorf Altach W | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 |  First Vienna W | 13 | -6 | 15 |
| 7 |  LASK W | 13 | -13 | 11 |
| 8 |  SK Rapid W | 12 | -15 | 10 |
| 9 |  Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W | 13 | -25 | 7 |
| 10 |  Südburgenland W | 13 | -24 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rheindorf Altach W vs SK Rapid W?
The Model pick is Rheindorf Altach W to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rheindorf Altach W v SK Rapid W probabilities?
Rheindorf Altach W win 58%, draw 21%, SK Rapid W win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Rheindorf Altach W vs SK Rapid W?
Rheindorf Altach W 2–1 SK Rapid W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rheindorf Altach W vs SK Rapid W?
Rheindorf Altach W 2.10, SK Rapid W 1.11 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Rheindorf Altach W vs SK Rapid W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 11:00 WAT – Frauenliga.