- λ home
- 1.65
- λ away
- 0.86
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.3%
Ebro vs Utebo prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ebro 56% · draw 24% · Utebo 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ebro v Utebo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ebro v Utebo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.45 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.58 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.65, λaway = 0.86
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ebro | – | 62.0% | 48.8% | 56.5% |
| X Draw | – | 21.0% | 27.3% | 23.6% |
| 2 Utebo | – | 17.0% | 23.9% | 19.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ebro | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +3.4% | |
| X · Draw | 23.6% | 4.23 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -22.5% | |
| 2 · Utebo | 19.9% | 5.03 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -25.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.5% | |
| X2 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -23.4% | |
| 12 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -5.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ebro | 73.9% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Utebo | 26.1% | 3.84 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.1% | 1.41 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.9% | 3.47 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -11.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.14 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.4% | 3.78 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -15.4% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 73.6% | 1.36 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 42.5% | 2.36 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -21.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.9% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.3% | 5.77 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.736 × 1.26 − 1 = -0.073 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ebro | Utebo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLWW | WDDLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ebro ahead at 56%, against 20% for Utebo and 24% for the draw. Standings: Ebro 6th on 17, Utebo 10th on 12.
Form
Ebro have three wins from their last six (W D L L W W). Latest: 5–2 away at Tudelano. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Utebo, last six: W D D L D D – one win in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Osasuna II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Utebo 1–0 Ebro. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ebro 1.65 · Utebo 0.86 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 74%, odds 1.26 v fair 1.36. Most probable score: Ebro 1–0 Utebo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Apr 2026Utebo1–0Ebro
Segunda División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona B | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 |  Terrassa | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Espanyol II | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 4 |  Girona II | 10 | +9 | 19 |
| 5 |  Olot | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Ebro | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Osasuna II | 10 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Manresa | 10 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 |  Reddis | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Utebo | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Peña Sport | 10 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 |  Barbastro | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Tudelano | 10 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 |  UD Logroñés II | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  SD Logroñés | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Náxara | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Arnedo | 10 | -13 | 6 |
| 18 |  Calamocha | 10 | -14 | 5 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ebro vs Utebo?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 74, priced around 1.26 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ebro v Utebo probabilities?
Ebro win 56%, draw 24%, Utebo win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Ebro vs Utebo?
Ebro 1–0 Utebo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ebro vs Utebo?
Ebro 1.65, Utebo 0.86 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Ebro vs Utebo?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 2.