- λ home
- 1.13
- λ away
- 1.35
- Σλ total
- 2.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Marek vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Marek 33% · draw 22% · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 44%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Marek v Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Marek v Chernomorets 1919 Burgas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.48 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.13, λaway = 1.35
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Marek | – | 36.0% | 30.0% | 33.5% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.6% | 22.4% |
| 2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | – | 46.0% | 41.4% | 44.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Marek | 33.5% | 2.99 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -0.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -30.0% | |
| 2 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -5.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -14.5% | |
| X2 | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -14.9% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Marek | 43.2% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 56.8% | 1.76 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -8.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -12.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -8.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -11.2% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -8.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.94 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -6.9% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -11.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.6% | 4.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.3% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.0% | 3.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.759 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.089 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Marek | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDLWW | DWDLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas narrowly ahead at 44%; Marek 33%. Standings: Marek 13th on 18, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3rd on 29.
Form
Marek, last six: L L D L W W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Hebar 1918. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Sequence for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: D W D L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–3 at home to Yantra 2019. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Marek 3–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Marek 1.13 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.35 · total 2.47. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Marek 0–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 May 2026Marek3–0Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 2 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Marek vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Marek v Chernomorets 1919 Burgas probabilities?
Marek win 33%, draw 22%, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Marek vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
Marek 0–1 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Marek vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
Marek 1.13, Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.35 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Marek vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Stadion Bonchuk – Second League.