- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.50
- Σλ total
- 2.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.9%
Fratria vs Sportist Svoge prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Fratria v Sportist Svoge: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 6–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Fratria v Sportist Svoge are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratria (home) | 1.67 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 1.99 |
| Sportist Svoge (away) | 1.18 | 0.73 | 0.85 | 0.73 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 1.19 × 1.01 ≈ 1.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.72 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.04 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.79 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fratria | 65.9% | 75.0% | 70.2% | 73.0% |
| X Draw | 21.4% | 16.0% | 20.3% | 17.8% |
| 2 Sportist Svoge | 12.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Fratria | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -7.3% | |
| X · Draw | 17.8% | 5.62 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -21.7% | |
| 2 · Sportist Svoge | 9.2% | 10.82 | 9.30 | 10.8% | -14.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.8% | 1.10 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -8.3% | |
| X2 | 27.0% | 3.70 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -18.9% | |
| 12 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Fratria | 88.8% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sportist Svoge | 11.2% | 8.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -12.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -1.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -15.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -0.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 3.59 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -22.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -3.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.15 | 46.5% | +8.2% | |
| BTTS no | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -21.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.1% | 10.97 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.503 × 2.15 − 1 = +0.082 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.071 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Fratria | Sportist Svoge |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWWW | DDLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Fratria 73% to win. Standings: Fratria 4th on 25, Sportist Svoge 16th on 12.
Form
Fratria have three wins from their last six (L L L W W W). Latest: 1–2 at home to Montana. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sportist Svoge, last six: D D L D L W – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Ludogorets II. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Sportist Svoge 0–3 Fratria. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Fratria 1.95 · Sportist Svoge 0.50 · total 2.45. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 2.15 v fair 1.99. Most probable score: Fratria 2–1 Sportist Svoge. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Feb 2026Sportist Svoge0–3Fratria
Second League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 16 | +16 | 32 |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia II | 15 | +18 | 31 |
| 3 |  Vihren | 15 | +15 | 29 |
| 4 |  Fratria | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 5 |  Yantra 2019 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Hebar 1918 | 15 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 8 |  Beroe | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ludogorets II | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  Spartak Pleven | 15 | -9 | 21 |
| 11 |  Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Rilski Sportist | 15 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  Marek | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 14 |  Nesebar | 15 | -1 | 18 |
| 15 |  Montana | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 |  Sportist Svoge | 15 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 |  Dobrudzha | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 18 |  Pirin Blagoevgrad | 15 | -33 | 2 |
More Second League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 2.15 by the bookmakers.
What are the Fratria v Sportist Svoge probabilities?
Fratria win 73%, draw 18%, Sportist Svoge win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
Fratria 2–1 Sportist Svoge is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
Fratria 1.95, Sportist Svoge 0.50 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Fratria vs Sportist Svoge?
Monday 9 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Albena Stadium – Second League.