- λ home
- 1.50
- λ away
- 1.28
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
Algeciras vs Antequera prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Algeciras 43% · draw 25% · Antequera 32%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Algeciras v Antequera: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Algeciras v Antequera are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeciras (home) | 1.59 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 1.54 |
| Antequera (away) | 1.09 | 1.15 | 1.07 | 1.34 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.59 × 1.02 × 0.96 ≈ 1.54
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.88 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.95 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.50, λaway = 1.28
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Algeciras | 41.6% | 46.0% | 42.4% | 43.0% |
| X Draw | 25.9% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 24.9% |
| 2 Antequera | 32.5% | 36.0% | 29.7% | 32.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Algeciras | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -9.8% | |
| X · Draw | 24.9% | 4.02 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -20.4% | |
| 2 · Antequera | 32.1% | 3.11 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -3.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -11.8% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -8.8% | |
| 12 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Algeciras | 57.2% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Antequera | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -1.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.4% | 3.65 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -17.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +2.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.94 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -12.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +3.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -9.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -4.3% | |
| BTTS no | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -12.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.2% | 3.81 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.726 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Algeciras | Antequera |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWWLW | WLWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Algeciras 43%, draw 25%, Antequera 32%. Standings: Algeciras 14th on 14, Antequera 13th on 14.
Form
Algeciras have three wins from their last six (D L W W L W). Latest: 1–1 away at Real Murcia. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Antequera: W L W D L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Rayo Majadahonda. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Antequera 2–0 Algeciras. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Algeciras 1.50 · Antequera 1.28 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.38. Most probable score: Algeciras 2–1 Antequera. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Mar 2026Antequera2–0Algeciras
Primera División RFEF Group 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaragoza | 12 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Villarreal II | 12 | +11 | 23 |
| 3 |  Real Murcia | 11 | +4 | 20 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid II | 12 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Real Jaén | 12 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 |  Alcorcon | 11 | +9 | 18 |
| 7 |  Ibiza | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 8 |  Hércules | 12 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 |  FC Cartagena | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 10 |  Sant Andreu | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Huesca | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  Gimnastic | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 |  Antequera | 11 | +2 | 14 |
| 14 |  Algeciras | 11 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 |  Águilas | 12 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 |  Atlético Madrid II | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 17 |  Juventud Torremolinos | 12 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 |  Europa Fc | 12 | -13 | 10 |
| 19 |  Rayo Majadahonda | 12 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 |  Teruel | 11 | -13 | 7 |
More Primera División RFEF Group 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Algeciras vs Antequera?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Algeciras v Antequera probabilities?
Algeciras win 43%, draw 25%, Antequera win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Algeciras vs Antequera?
Algeciras 2–1 Antequera is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Algeciras vs Antequera?
Algeciras 1.50, Antequera 1.28 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Algeciras vs Antequera?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Estadio Nuevo Mirador – Primera División RFEF Group 2.