- λ home
- 1.20
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.46
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Deportivo La Coruña II vs Barakaldo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Deportivo La Coruña II v Barakaldo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Deportivo La Coruña II v Barakaldo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (12 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña II (home) | 1.39 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 1.18 |
| Barakaldo (away) | 1.10 | 0.87 | 1.29 | 1.24 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.39 × 1.00 × 0.85 ≈ 1.18
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.41 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.32 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.46 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.20, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo La Coruña II | 34.1% | 37.0% | 38.0% | 37.4% |
| X Draw | 29.0% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 22.2% |
| 2 Barakaldo | 36.9% | 45.0% | 34.1% | 40.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo La Coruña II | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -12.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Barakaldo | 40.4% | 2.47 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +5.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -16.6% | |
| X2 | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.1% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo La Coruña II | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Barakaldo | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.49 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -2.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -13.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -3.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -1.3% | |
| BTTS no | 45.2% | 2.21 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -13.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.8% | 3.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.548 × 1.80 − 1 = -0.013 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo La Coruña II | Barakaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLLL | WDDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 22 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Deportivo La Coruña II 18th on 12, Barakaldo 12th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo La Coruña II: L W L L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Arenas Getxo. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Barakaldo, last six: W D D W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Real Unión. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo La Coruña II 1.20 · Barakaldo 1.26 · total 2.46. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Deportivo La Coruña II 1–2 Barakaldo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera División RFEF Group 1 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lugo | 11 | +10 | 28 |
| 2 |  UD Logroñés | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 |  Mérida AD | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 |  Pontevedra | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Cacereño | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 6 |  Racing Ferrol | 12 | +1 | 18 |
| 7 |  Real Avilés | 11 | +8 | 17 |
| 8 |  Mirandes | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 9 |  Extremadura 1924 | 11 | +6 | 16 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club II | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Real Unión | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 12 |  Barakaldo | 12 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 |  CD Coria | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Ponferradina | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cultural Leonesa | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 |  Unionistas de Salamanca | 12 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 |  Zamora | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 18 |  Deportivo La Coruña II | 12 | -7 | 12 |
| 19 |  Arenas Getxo | 11 | -13 | 11 |
| 20 |  UD Ourense | 12 | -14 | 8 |
More Primera División RFEF Group 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo La Coruña II vs Barakaldo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo La Coruña II v Barakaldo probabilities?
Deportivo La Coruña II win 37%, draw 22%, Barakaldo win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo La Coruña II vs Barakaldo?
Deportivo La Coruña II 1–2 Barakaldo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo La Coruña II vs Barakaldo?
Deportivo La Coruña II 1.20, Barakaldo 1.26 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Deportivo La Coruña II vs Barakaldo?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 18:45 WAT, at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo – Primera División RFEF Group 1.