- λ home
- 1.28
- λ away
- 1.60
- Σλ total
- 2.88
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.5%
Valladolid vs Castellón prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Valladolid v Castellón: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Valladolid v Castellón are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid (home) | 1.57 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 0.91 |
| Castellón (away) | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.04 | 1.56 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.57 × 1.08 × 0.54 ≈ 0.91
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.47 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.79 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.95 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.88 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.28, λaway = 1.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Valladolid | 21.5% | 33.0% | 32.0% | 32.6% |
| X Draw | 26.8% | 17.0% | 25.7% | 20.7% |
| 2 Castellón | 51.7% | 50.0% | 42.3% | 46.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.074 → 7.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Valladolid | 32.6% | 3.07 | 2.91 | 34.4% | -5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.84 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -25.2% | |
| 2 · Castellón | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +2.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -13.8% | |
| X2 | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -7.6% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.26 | 79.4% | 0.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Valladolid | 41.1% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Castellón | 58.9% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -9.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -10.7% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -8.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -4.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.4% | 2.90 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -14.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.6% | 1.53 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -6.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -8.9% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -7.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.4% | 3.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.1% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.557 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.080 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Valladolid | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLLW | DWWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 47% against 33%. Standings: Valladolid 12th on 18, Castellón 2nd on 30.
Form
Sequence for Valladolid: W W W L L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Sporting Gijon. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Castellón: D W W W L D, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Burgos. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Valladolid 1.28 · Castellón 1.60 · total 2.88. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Valladolid 1–2 Castellón. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Almeria | 14 | +15 | 32 |
| 2 |  Castellón | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 3 |  Girona | 14 | +11 | 24 |
| 4 |  Burgos | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Eibar | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Granada CF | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 8 |  Sporting Gijon | 14 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 14 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Cordoba | 14 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 13 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Valladolid | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sabadell | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 |  Leganes | 14 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  Eldense | 13 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo II | 13 | -6 | 13 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 14 | -7 | 13 |
| 19 |  FC Andorra | 13 | -6 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 13 | -11 | 10 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 13 | -20 | 5 |
More Segunda División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Valladolid vs Castellón?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Valladolid v Castellón probabilities?
Valladolid win 33%, draw 21%, Castellón win 47%.
What is the most probable score for Valladolid vs Castellón?
Valladolid 1–2 Castellón is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Valladolid vs Castellón?
Valladolid 1.28, Castellón 1.60 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Valladolid vs Castellón?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Estadio José Zorrilla – Segunda División.