- λ home
- 2.05
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 3.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Albacete 60% · draw 24% · Celta de Vigo II 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Albacete v Celta de Vigo II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Albacete v Celta de Vigo II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.12 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.02 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.05, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Albacete | – | 62.0% | 57.1% | 60.0% |
| X Draw | – | 23.0% | 24.4% | 23.6% |
| 2 Celta de Vigo II | – | 15.0% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.080 → 8.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Albacete | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -2.9% | |
| X · Draw | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -10.4% | |
| 2 · Celta de Vigo II | 16.5% | 6.07 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -17.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.3% | |
| X2 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -9.9% | |
| 12 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Albacete | 78.4% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Celta de Vigo II | 21.6% | 4.64 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.03 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -10.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.4% | 2.42 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -6.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -7.2% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.3% | |
| BTTS no | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -11.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.629 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Albacete | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLL | LDLDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Albacete 60%, draw 24%, Celta de Vigo II 16%. Standings: Albacete 21st on 10, Celta de Vigo II 16th on 13.
Form
Albacete have four wins from their last six (W W W W L L). Latest: 3–0 away at Calvo Sotelo. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Celta de Vigo II: L D L D W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Burgos. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Albacete 2.05 · Celta de Vigo II 1.01 · total 3.07. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Albacete 2–1 Celta de Vigo II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Almeria | 13 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Castellón | 12 | +18 | 27 |
| 3 |  Burgos | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 4 |  Eibar | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 |  Granada CF | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 12 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sporting Gijon | 13 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 |  Girona | 13 | +10 | 21 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 10 |  Las Palmas | 13 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 |  Cordoba | 13 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  Valladolid | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sabadell | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 |  Eldense | 13 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 |  Celta de Vigo II | 13 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 |  Real Sociedad II | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 |  Leganes | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 19 |  FC Andorra | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 13 | -11 | 10 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 13 | -20 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Albacete v Celta de Vigo II probabilities?
Albacete win 60%, draw 24%, Celta de Vigo II win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II?
Albacete 2–1 Celta de Vigo II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II?
Albacete 2.05, Celta de Vigo II 1.01 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II?
Monday 16 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Carlos Belmonte – Segunda División.