- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 1.79
- Σλ total
- 3.17
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.4%
Polonia Nysa vs Górnik Polkowice prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Polonia Nysa v Górnik Polkowice: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Polonia Nysa v Górnik Polkowice are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Nysa (home) | 1.72 | 0.80 | 1.17 | 1.61 |
| Górnik Polkowice (away) | 1.26 | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.72 × 0.80 × 1.17 ≈ 1.61
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.58 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.26 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.17 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 1.79
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 47.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Polonia Nysa | 31.3% | 30.0% | 32.4% | 31.0% |
| X Draw | 22.4% | 17.0% | 26.5% | 21.0% |
| 2 Górnik Polkowice | 46.2% | 53.0% | 41.1% | 48.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Polonia Nysa | 31.0% | 3.22 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -14.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.0% | 4.76 | 3.36 | 29.8% | -29.4% | |
| 2 · Górnik Polkowice | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.17 | 46.1% | +4.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -20.9% | |
| X2 | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -8.9% | |
| 12 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Polonia Nysa | 39.3% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Górnik Polkowice | 60.7% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.5% | 5.73 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | 2.55 | 2.26 | 44.2% | -11.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.31 | 43.3% | -8.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -9.0% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.47 | 40.5% | -9.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.7% | 3.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.632 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.090 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Polonia Nysa | Górnik Polkowice |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDWLW | LDWLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 31%. Standings: Polonia Nysa 18th on 13, Górnik Polkowice 7th on 25.
Form
Sequence for Polonia Nysa: D L D W L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Carina Gubin. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Górnik Polkowice have two wins from their last six (L D W L W D). Latest: 0–4 at home to Sparta Katowice. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Polonia Nysa 0, Górnik Polkowice 2, drawn 0, 4.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Apr 2026): Polonia Nysa 1–2 Górnik Polkowice. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Polonia Nysa 1.39 · Górnik Polkowice 1.79 · total 3.17. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Polonia Nysa 1–2 Górnik Polkowice. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Apr 2026Polonia Nysa1–2Górnik Polkowice
- 14 Feb 2026Górnik Polkowice4–1Polonia Nysa
III Liga Group 3 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 16 | +16 | 37 |
| 2 |  Sparta Katowice | 16 | +21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Odra Bytom Odrzański | 16 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Zagłębie Lubin II | 17 | +5 | 27 |
| 5 |  ROW Rybnik | 17 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  Miedź Legnica II | 18 | +6 | 26 |
| 7 |  Górnik Polkowice | 17 | +2 | 25 |
| 8 |  Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 17 | +5 | 24 |
| 9 |  Barycz Sułów | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Goczałkowice Zdrój | 17 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 |  Kluczbork | 17 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 |  Stal Brzeg | 16 | +5 | 19 |
| 13 |  Stilon Gorzów | 17 | -4 | 18 |
| 14 |  Ślęza Wrocław | 17 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 |  Carina Gubin | 17 | -13 | 17 |
| 16 |  Warta Gorzów | 17 | -19 | 15 |
| 17 |  Rakow II | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  Polonia Nysa | 16 | -15 | 13 |
More III Liga Group 3 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Polonia Nysa vs Górnik Polkowice?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Polonia Nysa v Górnik Polkowice probabilities?
Polonia Nysa win 31%, draw 21%, Górnik Polkowice win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Polonia Nysa vs Górnik Polkowice?
Polonia Nysa 1–2 Górnik Polkowice is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Polonia Nysa vs Górnik Polkowice?
Polonia Nysa 1.39, Górnik Polkowice 1.79 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Polonia Nysa vs Górnik Polkowice?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:00 WAT – III Liga Group 3.