- λ home
- 1.43
- λ away
- 1.52
- Σλ total
- 2.95
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.4%
Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Wisłoka Dębica v Czarni Połaniec: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Wisłoka Dębica v Czarni Połaniec are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisłoka Dębica (home) | 1.69 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 1.41 |
| Czarni Połaniec (away) | 1.37 | 1.12 | 0.94 | 1.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.69 × 0.94 × 0.89 ≈ 1.41
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.06 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.95 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.43, λaway = 1.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wisłoka Dębica | 36.2% | 42.0% | 33.0% | 38.2% |
| X Draw | 26.1% | 16.0% | 25.2% | 19.9% |
| 2 Czarni Połaniec | 37.7% | 42.0% | 41.8% | 41.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wisłoka Dębica | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.70 | 37.0% | +3.2% | |
| X · Draw | 19.9% | 5.04 | 3.54 | 28.2% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Czarni Połaniec | 41.9% | 2.38 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -10.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -10.6% | |
| X2 | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -17.8% | |
| 12 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wisłoka Dębica | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Czarni Połaniec | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.87 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -8.6% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -5.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -14.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -10.3% | |
| BTTS no | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.36 | 42.4% | -7.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.8% | 3.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.1% | 3.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.578 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.104 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wisłoka Dębica | Czarni Połaniec |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWDW | WDWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Wisłoka Dębica 38%, draw 20%, Czarni Połaniec 42%. Standings: Wisłoka Dębica 6th on 29, Czarni Połaniec 3rd on 31.
Form
Wisłoka Dębica, last six: L W L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–4 away at Hetman Zamosc. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Czarni Połaniec: W D W D L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–2 at home to Sokół Kolb.. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wisłoka Dębica 1.43 · Czarni Połaniec 1.52 · total 2.95. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 58%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Wisłoka Dębica 1–2 Czarni Połaniec. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 17 | +21 | 43 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Czarni Połaniec | 17 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Hetman Zamosc | 16 | +8 | 29 |
| 5 |  Naprzód | 17 | +5 | 29 |
| 6 |  Wisłoka Dębica | 17 | +1 | 29 |
| 7 |  Wisła Kraków II | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 17 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 |  Star Starachowice | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 |  Sokół Kolb. | 17 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 |  Jarosław | 17 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Busko-Zdroj | 17 | -18 | 17 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce II | 16 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 17 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 17 | -16 | 13 |
| 18 |  Moravia Morawica | 16 | -10 | 12 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wisłoka Dębica v Czarni Połaniec probabilities?
Wisłoka Dębica win 38%, draw 20%, Czarni Połaniec win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec?
Wisłoka Dębica 1–2 Czarni Połaniec is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec?
Wisłoka Dębica 1.43, Czarni Połaniec 1.52 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Wisłoka Dębica vs Czarni Połaniec?
Friday 13 November 2026, 18:00 WAT – III Liga Group 4.