- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.43
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.9%
KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Hetman Zamosc prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
KS Wieczysta Krakow II v Hetman Zamosc: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for KS Wieczysta Krakow II v Hetman Zamosc are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS Wieczysta Krakow II (home) | 1.69 | 0.75 | 0.96 | 1.21 |
| Hetman Zamosc (away) | 1.37 | 1.27 | 0.77 | 1.34 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.69 × 0.75 × 0.96 ≈ 1.21
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.74 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.43
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 33.0% | 38.0% | 44.3% | 38.9% |
| X Draw | 27.9% | 16.0% | 25.1% | 24.0% |
| 2 Hetman Zamosc | 39.1% | 46.0% | 30.6% | 37.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 38.9% | 2.57 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -21.8% | |
| X · Draw | 24.0% | 4.17 | 3.55 | 28.2% | -14.9% | |
| 2 · Hetman Zamosc | 37.1% | 2.69 | 2.91 | 34.4% | +8.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -18.9% | |
| X2 | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -1.6% | |
| 12 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -9.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 51.2% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hetman Zamosc | 48.8% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -16.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.41 | 41.5% | +1.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -20.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +0.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -12.5% | |
| BTTS no | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -2.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.1% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.638 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.002 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | Hetman Zamosc |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDWDW | WWWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – KS Wieczysta Krakow II 39%, draw 24%, Hetman Zamosc 37%. Standings: KS Wieczysta Krakow II 12th on 19, Hetman Zamosc 4th on 29.
Form
KS Wieczysta Krakow II, last six: W L D W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at KSZO 1929. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Hetman Zamosc have five wins from their last six (W W W W W D). Latest: 4–2 at home to Wisłoka Dębica. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.37 · Hetman Zamosc 1.43 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1–0 Hetman Zamosc. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
III Liga Group 4 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chełmianka Chełm | 17 | +21 | 43 |
| 2 |  KSZO 1929 | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 3 |  Czarni Połaniec | 17 | +6 | 31 |
| 4 |  Hetman Zamosc | 16 | +8 | 29 |
| 5 |  Naprzód | 17 | +5 | 29 |
| 6 |  Wisłoka Dębica | 17 | +1 | 29 |
| 7 |  Wisła Kraków II | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 8 |  Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 17 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 |  Star Starachowice | 17 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 |  Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 |  Sokół Kolb. | 17 | 0 | 19 |
| 12 |  KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 13 |  Jarosław | 17 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Busko-Zdroj | 17 | -18 | 17 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce II | 16 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 17 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 17 | -16 | 13 |
| 18 |  Moravia Morawica | 16 | -10 | 12 |
More III Liga Group 4 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Hetman Zamosc?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the KS Wieczysta Krakow II v Hetman Zamosc probabilities?
KS Wieczysta Krakow II win 39%, draw 24%, Hetman Zamosc win 37%.
What is the most probable score for KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Hetman Zamosc?
KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1–0 Hetman Zamosc is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Hetman Zamosc?
KS Wieczysta Krakow II 1.37, Hetman Zamosc 1.43 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is KS Wieczysta Krakow II vs Hetman Zamosc?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Stadion KS Wieczysta – III Liga Group 4.