- λ home
- 2.16
- λ away
- 1.31
- Σλ total
- 3.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.5%
Würzburger FV vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg prediction & xG model: Würzburger FV to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Würzburger FV v Viktoria Aschaffenburg: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipWürzburger FV to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Würzburger FV v Viktoria Aschaffenburg are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (27 and 30 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Würzburger FV (home) | 1.66 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.91 |
| Viktoria Aschaffenburg (away) | 1.38 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 1.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.10 × 1.05 ≈ 1.91
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.98 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.72 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.16, λaway = 1.31
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 22.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Würzburger FV | 56.3% | 63.0% | 52.1% | 58.4% |
| X Draw | 23.2% | 15.0% | 21.0% | 17.5% |
| 2 Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 20.5% | 22.0% | 26.9% | 24.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Würzburger FV pick | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +1.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.71 | 4.30 | 23.3% | -24.7% | |
| 2 · Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 24.1% | 4.16 | 3.35 | 29.9% | -19.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.4% | |
| X2 | 41.6% | 2.41 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -22.7% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Würzburger FV | 70.8% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 29.2% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.9% | 7.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -11.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -1.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -13.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.7% | 1.94 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -3.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -9.0% | |
| BTTS no | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -7.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.5% | 4.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.584 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.015 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Würzburger FV | Viktoria Aschaffenburg |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWDDW | DLDDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 1-4-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Würzburger FV ahead at 58%, against 24% for Viktoria Aschaffenburg and 18% for the draw.
Form
Würzburger FV, last six: D D W D D W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Jahn Regensburg II. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Viktoria Aschaffenburg: D L D D W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Großbardorf. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1–2 Würzburger FV. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Würzburger FV 2.16 · Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1.31 · total 3.47. Goals expected – 70% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Würzburger FV to win, probability 58%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Würzburger FV 2–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Sep 2026Viktoria Aschaffenburg1–2Würzburger FV
Oberliga Bayern Nord table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eltersdorf | 32 | +25 | 65 |
| 2 |  Cham | 33 | +27 | 62 |
| 3 |  ASV Neumarkt | 32 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 |  Gebenbach | 32 | +6 | 53 |
| 5 |  Eintracht Bamberg | 32 | +14 | 51 |
| 6 |  Weiden | 32 | +18 | 50 |
| 7 |  Ingolstadt II | 32 | +9 | 46 |
| 8 |  Fortuna Regensburg | 32 | +8 | 45 |
| 9 |  Jahn Regensburg II | 32 | +6 | 44 |
| 10 |  Bayern Hof | 32 | +5 | 43 |
| 11 |  Neudrossenfeld | 32 | -6 | 42 |
| 12 |  Kornburg | 32 | -1 | 40 |
| 13 |  Würzburger FV | 32 | -16 | 37 |
| 14 |  ATSV Erlangen | 33 | -22 | 37 |
| 15 |  Stadeln | 32 | -23 | 35 |
| 16 |  Coburg | 32 | -37 | 30 |
| 17 |  Großschwarzenlohe | 32 | -31 | 20 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Würzburger FV vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg?
The Model pick is Würzburger FV to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Würzburger FV v Viktoria Aschaffenburg probabilities?
Würzburger FV win 58%, draw 18%, Viktoria Aschaffenburg win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Würzburger FV vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg?
Würzburger FV 2–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Würzburger FV vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg?
Würzburger FV 2.16, Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1.31 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is Würzburger FV vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Oberliga Bayern Nord.