- λ home
- 2.07
- λ away
- 1.99
- Σλ total
- 4.06
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 72%
- Modal score
- 2–1 7.4%
Victoria Hamburg vs Altona 93 prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Victoria Hamburg v Altona 93: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Victoria Hamburg v Altona 93 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Hamburg (home) | 1.66 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 2.63 |
| Altona 93 (away) | 1.38 | 1.28 | 0.91 | 1.61 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.26 × 1.26 ≈ 2.63
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.23 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.17 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.96 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.06 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.07, λaway = 1.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 7.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Victoria Hamburg | 59.2% | 41.0% | 45.3% | 42.8% |
| X Draw | 18.6% | 15.0% | 21.1% | 17.5% |
| 2 Altona 93 | 22.3% | 44.0% | 33.6% | 39.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Victoria Hamburg | 42.8% | 2.34 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -14.8% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.70 | 4.28 | 23.4% | -24.9% | |
| 2 · Altona 93 | 39.6% | 2.52 | 2.68 | 37.3% | +6.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -18.5% | |
| X2 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -6.8% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Victoria Hamburg | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Altona 93 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 91.3% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 8.7% | 11.43 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -7.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 23.7% | 4.23 | 3.76 | 26.6% | -11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 pick | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -7.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -10.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 72.2% | 1.38 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -11.1% | |
| BTTS no | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.56 | 28.1% | -1.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.5% | 2.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.1% | 3.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.5% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.569 × 1.63 − 1 = -0.072 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Victoria Hamburg | Altona 93 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDWD | WWLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Victoria Hamburg 43%, draw 18%, Altona 93 40%.
Form
Sequence for Victoria Hamburg: W L W D W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–0 away at Buchholz. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Altona 93, last six: W W L D W W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Vorwärts-Wacker 04. Scoring rate: 2.7 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Victoria Hamburg 2.07 · Altona 93 1.99 · total 4.06. Goals expected – 76% for over 2.5 and 72% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.76. Most probable score: Victoria Hamburg 3–1 Altona 93. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Oberliga Hamburg table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ETSV Hamburg | 34 | +99 | 83 |
| 2 |  Eimsbütteler TV | 34 | +57 | 78 |
| 3 |  Tus Dassendorf | 34 | +67 | 76 |
| 4 |  Victoria Hamburg | 34 | +35 | 64 |
| 5 |  Paloma | 34 | +34 | 61 |
| 6 |  HT16 | 34 | 0 | 57 |
| 7 |  Teutonia Ottensen | 34 | -9 | 52 |
| 8 |  Süderelbe | 34 | +8 | 51 |
| 9 |  Niendorfer TSV | 34 | +18 | 50 |
| 10 |  Sasel | 34 | +3 | 50 |
| 11 |  Harksheide | 34 | -27 | 45 |
| 12 |  Buchholz | 34 | +7 | 44 |
| 13 |  HEBC | 34 | -18 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 34 | -23 | 38 |
| 15 |  Nikola Tesla | 34 | -25 | 37 |
| 16 |  Türkiye | 34 | -47 | 29 |
| 17 |  Halstenbek-Rellingen | 34 | -63 | 12 |
| 18 |  Curslack-Neuengamme | 34 | -116 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Victoria Hamburg vs Altona 93?
The Model pick is Over 3.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.63 by the bookmakers.
What are the Victoria Hamburg v Altona 93 probabilities?
Victoria Hamburg win 43%, draw 18%, Altona 93 win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Victoria Hamburg vs Altona 93?
Victoria Hamburg 3–1 Altona 93 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Victoria Hamburg vs Altona 93?
Victoria Hamburg 2.07, Altona 93 1.99 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 72%.
What time is Victoria Hamburg vs Altona 93?
Friday 13 November 2026, 19:30 WAT – Oberliga Hamburg.