- λ home
- 1.18
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nové Zámky prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Slovan Duslo Šaľa v Nové Zámky: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Slovan Duslo Šaľa v Nové Zámky are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (23 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovan Duslo Šaľa (home) | 1.66 | 0.65 | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| Nové Zámky (away) | 1.38 | 0.88 | 1.17 | 1.41 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.65 × 0.93 ≈ 1.01
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.18, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 28.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 46.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 26.3% | 31.0% | 29.5% | 30.4% |
| X Draw | 28.2% | 17.0% | 27.0% | 21.2% |
| 2 Nové Zámky | 45.5% | 52.0% | 43.5% | 48.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.06 | 32.7% | -7.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -29.2% | |
| 2 · Nové Zámky | 48.5% | 2.06 | 2.07 | 48.3% | +0.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -18.6% | |
| X2 | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.9% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nové Zámky | 61.5% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -10.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.98 | 25.1% | -7.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -10.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -5.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.9% | 3.14 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -15.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -4.4% | |
| BTTS no | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.24 | 44.6% | -14.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.7% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.8% | 2.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.617 × 1.55 − 1 = -0.044 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | Nové Zámky |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLDL | LLWLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 100% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 48% against 30%.
Form
Slovan Duslo Šaľa, last six: L L L L D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–4 away at Veľké Ludince. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.0 per match.
Nové Zámky have three wins from their last six (L L W L W W). Latest: 0–2 at home to Zemplín Michalovce. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1.18 · Nové Zámky 1.58 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1–2 Nové Zámky. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nové Zámky?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Slovan Duslo Šaľa v Nové Zámky probabilities?
Slovan Duslo Šaľa win 30%, draw 21%, Nové Zámky win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nové Zámky?
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1–2 Nové Zámky is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nové Zámky?
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1.18, Nové Zámky 1.58 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nové Zámky?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – 3. Liga West.