- λ home
- 1.50
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
FC Botosani vs Oţelul prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC Botosani v Oţelul: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Botosani v Oţelul are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Botosani (home) | 1.58 | 1.06 | 1.15 | 1.93 |
| Oţelul (away) | 1.01 | 0.97 | 1.09 | 1.08 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 1.06 × 1.15 ≈ 1.93
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.01 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.66 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.50, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Botosani | 56.6% | 47.0% | 45.6% | 46.4% |
| X Draw | 23.0% | 18.0% | 28.6% | 22.4% |
| 2 Oţelul | 20.4% | 35.0% | 25.9% | 31.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Botosani | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -6.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | 3.22 | 31.1% | -27.7% | |
| 2 · Oţelul | 31.2% | 3.21 | 3.56 | 28.1% | +10.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -13.9% | |
| X2 | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -8.9% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Botosani | 59.8% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Oţelul | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.3% | 3.81 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -12.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -6.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -7.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -12.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +2.4% | |
| BTTS no | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.5% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.602 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.024 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.034 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Botosani | Oţelul |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLWL | DLDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Botosani ahead at 46%, against 31% for Oţelul and 22% for the draw. Standings: FC Botosani 12th on 15, Oţelul 14th on 13.
Form
FC Botosani, last six: L D L L W L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Universitatea Craiova. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Sequence for Oţelul: D L D L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Botosani 1.50 · Oţelul 1.17 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: FC Botosani 2–1 Oţelul. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Universitatea Craiova | 15 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | +21 | 33 |
| 3 |  Rapid | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | +2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Universitatea Cluj | 15 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 |  Farul Constanta | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 7 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 |  FCSB | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Uta Arad | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |  FC Botosani | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Arges Pitesti | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 |  Oţelul | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 15 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 15 | -19 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Botosani vs Oţelul?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Botosani v Oţelul probabilities?
FC Botosani win 46%, draw 22%, Oţelul win 31%.
What is the most probable score for FC Botosani vs Oţelul?
FC Botosani 2–1 Oţelul is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Botosani vs Oţelul?
FC Botosani 1.50, Oţelul 1.17 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is FC Botosani vs Oţelul?
Monday 9 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Stadionul Municipal – Liga I.