- λ home
- 1.17
- λ away
- 1.18
- Σλ total
- 2.34
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
Uta Arad vs Corvinul Hunedoara prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Uta Arad v Corvinul Hunedoara: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Uta Arad v Corvinul Hunedoara are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uta Arad (home) | 1.58 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 1.25 |
| Corvinul Hunedoara (away) | 1.01 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.84 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.58 × 0.89 × 0.88 ≈ 1.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.20 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.34 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.17, λaway = 1.18
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Uta Arad | 44.9% | 36.0% | 42.1% | 38.6% |
| X Draw | 30.8% | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 Corvinul Hunedoara | 24.3% | 46.0% | 29.2% | 38.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.089 → 8.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Uta Arad | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -15.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -28.0% | |
| 2 · Corvinul Hunedoara | 38.9% | 2.57 | 3.15 | 31.7% | +22.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.1% | 1.64 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -18.8% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.5% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Uta Arad | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Corvinul Hunedoara | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.8% | 3.14 | 2.95 | 33.9% | -6.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.2% | 2.32 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -3.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -13.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +0.8% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -19.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.0% | 3.70 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.2% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.008 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.011 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Uta Arad | Corvinul Hunedoara |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDLW | WWDDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 39 / 22 / 39% for home, draw, away. Standings: Uta Arad 10th on 18, Corvinul Hunedoara 7th on 22.
Form
Uta Arad have one win from their last six (L D L D L W). Latest: 1–2 away at Universitatea Cluj. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Corvinul Hunedoara, last six: W W D D L W – three wins in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Minaur Baia Mare. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Uta Arad 1.17 · Corvinul Hunedoara 1.18 · total 2.34. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: Uta Arad 1–2 Corvinul Hunedoara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga I table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Universitatea Craiova | 15 | +24 | 33 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | +21 | 33 |
| 3 |  Rapid | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | +2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Universitatea Cluj | 15 | +6 | 26 |
| 6 |  Farul Constanta | 15 | +2 | 24 |
| 7 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | +1 | 22 |
| 8 |  FCSB | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 |  Uta Arad | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 12 |  FC Botosani | 15 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 |  Arges Pitesti | 15 | -7 | 15 |
| 14 |  Oţelul | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 15 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 15 | -19 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Uta Arad vs Corvinul Hunedoara?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Uta Arad v Corvinul Hunedoara probabilities?
Uta Arad win 39%, draw 22%, Corvinul Hunedoara win 39%.
What is the most probable score for Uta Arad vs Corvinul Hunedoara?
Uta Arad 1–2 Corvinul Hunedoara is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Uta Arad vs Corvinul Hunedoara?
Uta Arad 1.17, Corvinul Hunedoara 1.18 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Uta Arad vs Corvinul Hunedoara?
Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Arena Francisc Neuman – Liga I.