- λ home
- 1.71
- λ away
- 1.29
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday (home) | 1.66 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| Cambridge United (away) | 1.38 | 1.14 | 0.77 | 1.21 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.01 × 0.74 ≈ 1.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.45 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.71, λaway = 1.29
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 47.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 28.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sheffield Wednesday | 36.6% | 51.0% | 45.9% | 48.9% |
| X Draw | 28.7% | 17.0% | 26.2% | 20.9% |
| 2 Cambridge United | 34.7% | 32.0% | 27.8% | 30.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.089 → 8.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sheffield Wednesday | 48.9% | 2.05 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -2.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.79 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -26.9% | |
| 2 · Cambridge United | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -0.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -9.3% | |
| X2 | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -10.5% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sheffield Wednesday | 61.8% | 1.62 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cambridge United | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -13.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.0% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.6% | 4.07 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.614 × 1.57 − 1 = -0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sheffield Wednesday | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDWW | LDWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sheffield Wednesday ahead at 49%, against 30% for Cambridge United and 21% for the draw. Standings: Sheffield Wednesday 5th on 23, Cambridge United 10th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Sheffield Wednesday: L L W D W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Doncaster. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Cambridge United: L D W W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Plymouth. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.71 · Cambridge United 1.29 · total 3.00. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Cambridge United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Huddersfield | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |  Stockport County | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford United | 13 | +11 | 26 |
| 4 |  Luton | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 5 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 14 | +11 | 23 |
| 6 |  Plymouth | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 7 |  Reading | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 8 |  Bradford | 13 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 10 |  Cambridge United | 14 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 |  Leicester | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 12 |  Mansfield Town | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Wycombe | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 |  Leyton Orient | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Burton Albion | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 16 |  Stevenage | 12 | +4 | 16 |
| 17 |  AFC Wimbledon | 14 | -11 | 16 |
| 18 |  Notts County | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 |  Wigan | 15 | -10 | 14 |
| 20 |  Blackpool | 13 | -5 | 12 |
| 21 |  Doncaster | 13 | -8 | 12 |
| 22 |  Peterborough | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 23 |  Barnsley | 13 | -11 | 9 |
| 24 |  Bromley | 13 | -20 | 9 |
More League One predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United probabilities?
Sheffield Wednesday win 49%, draw 21%, Cambridge United win 30%.
What is the most probable score for Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United?
Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 Cambridge United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United?
Sheffield Wednesday 1.71, Cambridge United 1.29 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United?
Tuesday 27 October 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Hillsborough Stadium – League One.