- λ home
- 1.32
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.58
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.6%
Crewe vs Newport County prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Crewe v Newport County: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Crewe v Newport County are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe (home) | 1.66 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 1.53 |
| Newport County (away) | 1.38 | 1.12 | 0.91 | 1.41 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.03 × 0.89 ≈ 1.53
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.93 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.54 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.58 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.32, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 38.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Crewe | 39.8% | 38.0% | 43.2% | 40.2% |
| X Draw | 25.7% | 18.0% | 28.2% | 22.3% |
| 2 Newport County | 34.5% | 44.0% | 28.6% | 37.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Crewe | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -13.6% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.49 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -26.5% | |
| 2 · Newport County | 37.5% | 2.66 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +22.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -16.9% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +1.7% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Crewe | 51.7% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Newport County | 48.3% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -5.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -4.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.9% | 3.72 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -8.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -11.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.2% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.5% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.557 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Crewe | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLLW | WLWLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Crewe 40%, draw 22%, Newport County 38%. Standings: Crewe 4th on 22, Newport County 14th on 18.
Form
Sequence for Crewe: L W D L L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Wigan. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Newport County, last six: W L W L D D – two wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Walsall. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Crewe 1.32 · Newport County 1.26 · total 2.58. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Crewe 2–1 Newport County. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
League Two table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Salford City | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 |  Barnet | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 |  Walsall | 13 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 |  Crewe | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 |  Cheltenham | 14 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 14 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 |  York | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 14 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Accrington ST | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Chesterfield | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 |  Tranmere | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 |  Exeter City | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 |  Swindon Town | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 |  Newport County | 14 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 |  Shrewsbury | 14 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 |  Fleetwood Town | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bristol Rovers | 14 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 |  Oldham | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 |  Port Vale | 12 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 |  Rochdale | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Northampton | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 |  Rotherham | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 |  Colchester | 13 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 12 | -8 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Crewe vs Newport County?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Crewe v Newport County probabilities?
Crewe win 40%, draw 22%, Newport County win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Crewe vs Newport County?
Crewe 2–1 Newport County is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Crewe vs Newport County?
Crewe 1.32, Newport County 1.26 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Crewe vs Newport County?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Alexandra Stadium – League Two.