- λ home
- 1.34
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 2.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Portsmouth vs Stoke City prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Portsmouth v Stoke City: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Portsmouth v Stoke City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth (home) | 1.64 | 0.91 | 0.93 | 1.39 |
| Stoke City (away) | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.88 | 1.16 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 0.91 × 0.93 ≈ 1.39
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.55 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.64 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.40 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.34, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Portsmouth | 41.5% | 43.0% | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 18.0% | 28.6% | 22.4% |
| 2 Stoke City | 30.7% | 39.0% | 28.6% | 34.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.061 → 6.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Portsmouth | 42.9% | 2.33 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -5.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.46 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -25.9% | |
| 2 · Stoke City | 34.6% | 2.89 | 3.30 | 30.3% | +14.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -15.0% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.7% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +3.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Portsmouth | 55.4% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Stoke City | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -2.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.2% | 3.32 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -9.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -2.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.14 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -3.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +6.0% | |
| BTTS no | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -19.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.5% | 3.92 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.555 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.060 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.066 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Portsmouth | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDWW | WWDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Portsmouth 43%, draw 22%, Stoke City 35%. Standings: Portsmouth 11th on 22, Stoke City 3rd on 29.
Form
Sequence for Portsmouth: W D W D W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Swansea. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Stoke City have four wins from their last six (W W D W L W). Latest: 2–1 away at Blackburn. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Portsmouth 1.34 · Stoke City 1.17 · total 2.51. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Portsmouth 2–1 Stoke City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Portsmouth v Stoke City probabilities?
Portsmouth win 43%, draw 22%, Stoke City win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Portsmouth 2–1 Stoke City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Portsmouth 1.34, Stoke City 1.17 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Saturday 7 November 2026, 13:30 WAT, at Fratton Park – Championship.