- λ home
- 1.47
- λ away
- 1.20
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.2%
Swansea vs Burnley prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Swansea v Burnley: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Swansea v Burnley are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea (home) | 1.64 | 1.02 | 1.32 | 2.20 |
| Burnley (away) | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 1.21 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 1.02 × 1.32 ≈ 2.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.41 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.47, λaway = 1.20
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Swansea | 59.3% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| X Draw | 20.9% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 22.2% |
| 2 Burnley | 19.8% | 37.0% | 27.1% | 32.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Swansea | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -7.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Burnley | 32.8% | 3.04 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +11.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -12.7% | |
| X2 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.8% | |
| 12 | 77.8% | 1.28 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Swansea | 57.8% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Burnley | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.5% | |
| BTTS no | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.5% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.1% | 3.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.602 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.007 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Swansea | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWWDW | DLDLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Swansea 45%, draw 22%, Burnley 33%. Standings: Swansea 6th on 26, Burnley 22nd on 10.
Form
Swansea, last six: L D W W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Southampton. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Burnley: D L D L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Wrexham. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Swansea 1.47 · Burnley 1.20 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Swansea 2–1 Burnley. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Swansea vs Burnley?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Swansea v Burnley probabilities?
Swansea win 45%, draw 22%, Burnley win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Swansea vs Burnley?
Swansea 2–1 Burnley is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Swansea vs Burnley?
Swansea 1.47, Burnley 1.20 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Swansea vs Burnley?
Saturday 12 September 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Swansea.com Stadium – Championship.