- λ home
- 1.66
- λ away
- 1.14
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.5%
Wrexham vs Burnley prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Wrexham v Burnley: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Wrexham v Burnley are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham (home) | 1.64 | 0.92 | 1.32 | 1.99 |
| Burnley (away) | 1.30 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 1.31 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.64 × 0.92 × 1.32 ≈ 1.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.30 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.80 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.66, λaway = 1.14
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 49.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 26.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wrexham | 52.5% | 54.0% | 45.9% | 50.6% |
| X Draw | 22.7% | 18.0% | 27.8% | 22.1% |
| 2 Burnley | 24.8% | 28.0% | 26.2% | 27.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.089 → 8.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wrexham | 50.6% | 1.98 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -27.0% | |
| 2 · Burnley | 27.3% | 3.67 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -4.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.7% | 1.37 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -6.2% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | 2.02 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -13.6% | |
| 12 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wrexham | 65.0% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Burnley | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.7% | 2.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.4% | 4.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.614 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wrexham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDDL | LDLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Wrexham ahead at 51%, against 27% for Burnley and 22% for the draw. Standings: Wrexham 15th on 18, Burnley 22nd on 10.
Form
Wrexham have one win from their last six (D W L D D L). Latest: 0–0 away at Swansea. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Burnley: L D L D L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Bristol City. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wrexham 1.66 · Burnley 1.14 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 61%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Wrexham 2–1 Burnley. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wrexham vs Burnley?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wrexham v Burnley probabilities?
Wrexham win 51%, draw 22%, Burnley win 27%.
What is the most probable score for Wrexham vs Burnley?
Wrexham 2–1 Burnley is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wrexham vs Burnley?
Wrexham 1.66, Burnley 1.14 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Wrexham vs Burnley?
Tuesday 8 September 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Racecourse Ground – Championship.