- λ home
- 2.62
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 3.61
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–0 9.2%
Viktoria Plzeň II vs Loko Vltavín prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Viktoria Plzeň II v Loko Vltavín: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Viktoria Plzeň II v Loko Vltavín are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoria Plzeň II (home) | 1.95 | 1.34 | 0.88 | 2.29 |
| Loko Vltavín (away) | 1.59 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 1.17 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.95 × 1.34 × 0.88 ≈ 2.29
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.46 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.57 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.65 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.61 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.62, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Viktoria Plzeň II | 61.8% | 73.0% | 68.3% | 71.0% |
| X Draw | 20.0% | 18.0% | 17.7% | 17.9% |
| 2 Loko Vltavín | 18.2% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 11.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Viktoria Plzeň II | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -6.2% | |
| X · Draw | 17.9% | 5.60 | 5.10 | 19.6% | -8.9% | |
| 2 · Loko Vltavín | 11.1% | 9.01 | 6.44 | 15.5% | -28.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.9% | 1.12 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -18.9% | |
| 12 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -11.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Viktoria Plzeň II | 86.5% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Loko Vltavín | 13.5% | 7.40 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -9.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.7% | 7.89 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -11.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -8.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -10.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -6.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -9.4% | |
| BTTS no | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -6.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 53.8% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.1% | 7.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.621 × 1.46 − 1 = -0.094 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Viktoria Plzeň II | Loko Vltavín |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWD | WDWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Viktoria Plzeň II 71% to win. Standings: Viktoria Plzeň II 3rd on 61, Loko Vltavín 10th on 44.
Form
Sequence for Viktoria Plzeň II: W W W W W D, so five victories in six. Latest: 5–2 away at Povltava FA. Scoring rate: 3.3 per match – well above average.
Loko Vltavín, last six: W D W L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Bohemians 1905 II. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Viktoria Plzeň II 2–0 Loko Vltavín. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Viktoria Plzeň II 2.62 · Loko Vltavín 1.00 · total 3.61. Goals expected – 70% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.46 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: Viktoria Plzeň II 2–1 Loko Vltavín. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Jun 2026Viktoria Plzeň II2–0Loko Vltavín
3. Liga CFL A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kladno | 32 | +58 | 72 |
| 2 |  Jiskra Domažlice | 32 | +38 | 69 |
| 3 |  Viktoria Plzeň II | 32 | +22 | 61 |
| 4 |  Písek | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Králův Dvůr | 32 | +3 | 49 |
| 6 |  Admira Praha | 32 | -4 | 48 |
| 7 |  Slavia III | 32 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 |  České Budějovice II | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 9 |  Aritma Praha | 32 | 0 | 45 |
| 10 |  Loko Vltavín | 32 | -8 | 44 |
| 11 |  Příbram II | 32 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 II | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 13 |  Dukla Praha II | 32 | -9 | 38 |
| 14 |  Motorlet Praha | 32 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 |  Sokol Hostouň | 32 | -14 | 34 |
| 16 |  Petřín Plzeň | 32 | -35 | 28 |
| 17 |  Táborsko II | 32 | -48 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Viktoria Plzeň II vs Loko Vltavín?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.46 by the bookmakers.
What are the Viktoria Plzeň II v Loko Vltavín probabilities?
Viktoria Plzeň II win 71%, draw 18%, Loko Vltavín win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Viktoria Plzeň II vs Loko Vltavín?
Viktoria Plzeň II 2–1 Loko Vltavín is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Viktoria Plzeň II vs Loko Vltavín?
Viktoria Plzeň II 2.62, Loko Vltavín 1.00 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Viktoria Plzeň II vs Loko Vltavín?
Friday 13 November 2026, 18:30 WAT, at Stadion Lucni – 3. Liga CFL A.