- λ home
- 1.83
- λ away
- 2.13
- Σλ total
- 3.96
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 70%
- Modal score
- 1–2 7.9%
Bohemians 1905 II vs Králův Dvůr prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Bohemians 1905 II 35% · draw 19% · Králův Dvůr 46%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Bohemians 1905 II v Králův Dvůr: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Bohemians 1905 II v Králův Dvůr are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 4.29 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.68 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.96 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.83, λaway = 2.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 7.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Bohemians 1905 II | – | 35.0% | 34.0% | 34.6% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 23.2% | 19.0% |
| 2 Králův Dvůr | – | 49.0% | 42.8% | 46.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Bohemians 1905 II | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -9.4% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.26 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -27.0% | |
| 2 · Králův Dvůr | 46.4% | 2.16 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -3.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.6% | 1.87 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -15.9% | |
| X2 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.0% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -6.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Bohemians 1905 II | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Králův Dvůr | 57.3% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -7.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.4% | 8.77 | 6.75 | 14.8% | -23.0% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -16.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -5.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -11.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.4% | |
| BTTS no | 30.0% | 3.33 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -5.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.6% | 3.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.5% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 37.0% | 2.70 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.734 × 1.27 − 1 = -0.068 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Bohemians 1905 II | Králův Dvůr |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWDD | WWDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.67 | 3.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Králův Dvůr narrowly ahead at 46%; Bohemians 1905 II 35%. Standings: Bohemians 1905 II 12th on 38, Králův Dvůr 5th on 49.
Form
Bohemians 1905 II, last six: L D L W D D – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Loko Vltavín. 2.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Králův Dvůr: W W D D W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 5–0 at home to Příbram II. 3.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Bohemians 1905 II 1.83 · Králův Dvůr 2.13 · total 3.96. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 70% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.27 v fair 1.36. Most probable score: Bohemians 1905 II 1–2 Králův Dvůr. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
3. Liga CFL A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kladno | 32 | +58 | 72 |
| 2 |  Jiskra Domažlice | 32 | +38 | 69 |
| 3 |  Viktoria Plzeň II | 32 | +22 | 61 |
| 4 |  Písek | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Králův Dvůr | 32 | +3 | 49 |
| 6 |  Admira Praha | 32 | -4 | 48 |
| 7 |  Slavia III | 32 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 |  České Budějovice II | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 9 |  Aritma Praha | 32 | 0 | 45 |
| 10 |  Loko Vltavín | 32 | -8 | 44 |
| 11 |  Příbram II | 32 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 II | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 13 |  Dukla Praha II | 32 | -9 | 38 |
| 14 |  Motorlet Praha | 32 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 |  Sokol Hostouň | 32 | -14 | 34 |
| 16 |  Petřín Plzeň | 32 | -35 | 28 |
| 17 |  Táborsko II | 32 | -48 | 16 |
More 3. Liga CFL A predictions
League page →
BenešovFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Bohemians 1905 II vs Králův Dvůr?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.27 by the bookmakers.
What are the Bohemians 1905 II v Králův Dvůr probabilities?
Bohemians 1905 II win 35%, draw 19%, Králův Dvůr win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Bohemians 1905 II vs Králův Dvůr?
Bohemians 1905 II 1–2 Králův Dvůr is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Bohemians 1905 II vs Králův Dvůr?
Bohemians 1905 II 1.83, Králův Dvůr 2.13 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 70%.
What time is Bohemians 1905 II vs Králův Dvůr?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 10:15 WAT – 3. Liga CFL A.