- λ home
- 2.57
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 3.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 72%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.2%
Turnov vs Vykan prediction & xG model: Turnov to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Turnov v Vykan: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipTurnov to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Turnov v Vykan are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnov (home) | 2.11 | 1.30 | 1.03 | 2.83 |
| Vykan (away) | 1.51 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 1.11 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 2.11 × 1.30 × 1.03 ≈ 2.83
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.93 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.75 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.68 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.57, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Turnov | 72.4% | 68.0% | 63.2% | 66.3% |
| X Draw | 15.5% | 11.0% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| 2 Vykan | 12.0% | 21.0% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Turnov pick | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.41 | 70.9% | -6.5% | |
| X · Draw | 16.8% | 5.95 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -24.4% | |
| 2 · Vykan | 16.9% | 5.92 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -11.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -10.2% | |
| X2 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.43 | 41.2% | -18.1% | |
| 12 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Turnov | 79.7% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vykan | 20.3% | 4.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 88.8% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 11.2% | 8.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 71.7% | 1.39 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -8.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 28.3% | 3.54 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -11.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -9.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -7.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -21.5% | |
| BTTS no | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.67 | 37.5% | +15.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 50.9% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.3% | 3.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.8% | 5.95 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.663 × 1.41 − 1 = -0.065 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Turnov | Vykan |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWDW | WLDLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Turnov at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Turnov 5th on 27, Vykan 12th on 14.
Form
Turnov have four wins from their last six (D W W W D W). Latest: 1–1 away at Svitavy. 2.8 goals a match in that spell.
Vykan have one win from their last six (W L D L L L). Latest: 2–0 at home to Spartak Police nMetují. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Turnov 2.57 · Vykan 1.17 · total 3.75. High total: over 2.5 72%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Turnov to win, probability 66%, odds 1.41 v fair 1.51. Most probable score: Turnov 2–1 Vykan. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
4. Liga Divizie C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vysoké Mýto | 15 | +25 | 37 |
| 2 |  Přepeře | 15 | +24 | 34 |
| 3 |  Kosmonosy | 15 | +23 | 33 |
| 4 |  Trutnov | 15 | +8 | 29 |
| 5 |  Turnov | 14 | +16 | 27 |
| 6 |  Ústí nad Orlicí | 15 | +12 | 26 |
| 7 |  Spartak Police n/Metují | 15 | +6 | 22 |
| 8 |  Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |  Kolín | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 |  Hlinsko | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 11 |  Dvůr Králové | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 12 |  Vykan | 14 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 |  Slavia Hradec Králové | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 14 |  Letohrad | 15 | -19 | 12 |
| 15 |  Svitavy | 15 | -26 | 6 |
| 16 |  Chrudim II | 15 | -38 | 6 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Turnov vs Vykan?
The Model pick is Turnov to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.41 by the bookmakers.
What are the Turnov v Vykan probabilities?
Turnov win 66%, draw 17%, Vykan win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Turnov vs Vykan?
Turnov 2–1 Vykan is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Turnov vs Vykan?
Turnov 2.57, Vykan 1.17 – over 2.5 at 72%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Turnov vs Vykan?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 4. Liga Divizie C.