- λ home
- 1.98
- λ away
- 1.63
- Σλ total
- 3.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 8.7%
Milevsko vs Strakonice prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Milevsko v Strakonice: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Milevsko v Strakonice are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milevsko (home) | 1.94 | 0.71 | 1.40 | 1.94 |
| Strakonice (away) | 1.66 | 1.04 | 1.19 | 2.04 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.94 × 0.71 × 1.40 ≈ 1.94
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.99 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.85 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.45 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.98, λaway = 1.63
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 8.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Milevsko | 37.4% | 50.0% | 46.9% | 47.1% |
| X Draw | 21.4% | 11.0% | 24.4% | 20.6% |
| 2 Strakonice | 41.2% | 39.0% | 28.7% | 32.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Milevsko | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -10.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.6% | 4.85 | 3.65 | 27.4% | -24.8% | |
| 2 · Strakonice | 32.3% | 3.10 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +0.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -14.7% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -10.6% | |
| 12 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Milevsko | 59.3% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Strakonice | 40.7% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.6% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.4% | 8.06 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | 3.18 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -13.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -7.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.7% | 1.94 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -9.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -16.8% | |
| BTTS no | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.83 | 35.3% | +7.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.8% | 2.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.685 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.075 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Milevsko | Strakonice |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLLL | DLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-0-5 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 3.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Milevsko ahead at 47%, against 32% for Strakonice and 21% for the draw. Standings: Milevsko 14th on 5, Strakonice 13th on 8.
Form
Milevsko, last six: L W L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Spartak Pribram. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Strakonice: D L L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Táborsko II. Per match: 1.0 scored, 3.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Strakonice 2–1 Milevsko. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Milevsko 1.98 · Strakonice 1.63 · total 3.62. Goals expected – 69% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Milevsko 2–1 Strakonice. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Aug 2026Strakonice2–1Milevsko
4. Liga Divizie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Křimice | 14 | +15 | 32 |
| 2 |  Petřín Plzeň | 14 | +14 | 31 |
| 3 |  Hluboka nad Vltavou | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  Spartak Pribram | 14 | +18 | 28 |
| 5 |  Táborsko II | 14 | +15 | 26 |
| 6 |  Spartak Soběslav | 14 | +10 | 25 |
| 7 |  Komárov | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 8 |  Hořovicko | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 9 |  Doubravka | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 |  Slavoj Český Krumlov | 14 | -13 | 13 |
| 11 |  Rokycany | 14 | -16 | 13 |
| 12 |  Jiskra Domažlice II | 13 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strakonice | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 14 |  Milevsko | 13 | -15 | 5 |
| 15 |  Nyrsko | 14 | -30 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Milevsko vs Strakonice?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Milevsko v Strakonice probabilities?
Milevsko win 47%, draw 21%, Strakonice win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Milevsko vs Strakonice?
Milevsko 2–1 Strakonice is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Milevsko vs Strakonice?
Milevsko 1.98, Strakonice 1.63 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Milevsko vs Strakonice?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 4. Liga Divizie A.