- λ home
- 1.50
- λ away
- 1.99
- Σλ total
- 3.49
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.1%
Doubravka vs Spartak Pribram prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Doubravka 32% · draw 16% · Spartak Pribram 52%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Doubravka v Spartak Pribram: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Doubravka v Spartak Pribram are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.54 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.45 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.49 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.50, λaway = 1.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 49.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Doubravka | – | 36.0% | 25.8% | 31.7% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 23.6% | 16.3% |
| 2 Spartak Pribram | – | 53.0% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Doubravka | 31.7% | 3.15 | 3.45 | 29.0% | +9.4% | |
| X · Draw | 16.3% | 6.14 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -38.5% | |
| 2 · Spartak Pribram | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -8.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -13.1% | |
| X2 | 68.3% | 1.46 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -17.4% | |
| 12 | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Doubravka | 37.9% | 2.64 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Spartak Pribram | 62.1% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.3% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.7% | 7.31 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 67.4% | 1.48 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -9.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | 3.06 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.0% | 2.13 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -9.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -20.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.73 | 36.6% | +13.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.7% | 3.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.9% | 2.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 38.4% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.674 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.090 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Doubravka | Spartak Pribram |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDLL | WLDWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Spartak Pribram narrowly ahead at 52%; Doubravka 32%. Standings: Doubravka 9th on 17, Spartak Pribram 4th on 27.
Form
Doubravka have two wins from their last six (W L W D L L). Latest: 2–0 away at Nyrsko. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Spartak Pribram: W L D W W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Milevsko. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Doubravka 1.50 · Spartak Pribram 1.99 · total 3.49. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Doubravka 1–2 Spartak Pribram. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
4. Liga Divizie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Petřín Plzeň | 14 | +14 | 31 |
| 2 |  Křimice | 13 | +12 | 29 |
| 3 |  Hluboka nad Vltavou | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  Spartak Pribram | 13 | +18 | 27 |
| 5 |  Spartak Soběslav | 13 | +10 | 24 |
| 6 |  Táborsko II | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Komárov | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 8 |  Hořovicko | 13 | +3 | 21 |
| 9 |  Doubravka | 13 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 |  Rokycany | 13 | -11 | 13 |
| 11 |  Slavoj Český Krumlov | 14 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  Jiskra Domažlice II | 13 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 |  Strakonice | 13 | -17 | 8 |
| 14 |  Milevsko | 13 | -15 | 5 |
| 15 |  Nyrsko | 13 | -27 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Doubravka vs Spartak Pribram?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Doubravka v Spartak Pribram probabilities?
Doubravka win 32%, draw 16%, Spartak Pribram win 52%.
What is the most probable score for Doubravka vs Spartak Pribram?
Doubravka 1–2 Spartak Pribram is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Doubravka vs Spartak Pribram?
Doubravka 1.50, Spartak Pribram 1.99 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Doubravka vs Spartak Pribram?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 4. Liga Divizie A.