- λ home
- 2.16
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 3.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.9%
Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Kleczew prediction & xG model: Znicz Pruszków to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Znicz Pruszków v Sokół Kleczew: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipZnicz Pruszków to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Znicz Pruszków v Sokół Kleczew are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Znicz Pruszków (home) | 1.62 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 2.48 |
| Sokół Kleczew (away) | 1.35 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.62 × 1.22 × 1.25 ≈ 2.48
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.60 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.23 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.26 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.16, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Znicz Pruszków | 66.4% | 65.0% | 54.7% | 60.7% |
| X Draw | 18.3% | 21.0% | 23.5% | 22.1% |
| 2 Sokół Kleczew | 15.3% | 14.0% | 21.8% | 17.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Znicz Pruszków pick | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +0.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.1% | 4.53 | 3.84 | 26.0% | -15.3% | |
| 2 · Sokół Kleczew | 17.3% | 5.79 | 4.14 | 24.2% | -28.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.7% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -5.7% | |
| X2 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -22.5% | |
| 12 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -9.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Znicz Pruszków | 77.8% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sokół Kleczew | 22.2% | 4.51 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.1% | 5.84 | 5.10 | 19.6% | -12.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -9.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 41.9% | 2.39 | 2.13 | 46.9% | -10.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -6.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.46 | 68.5% | -8.3% | |
| BTTS no | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -8.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.1% | 5.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.607 × 1.65 − 1 = +0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.002 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Znicz Pruszków | Sokół Kleczew |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWWW | WWWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Znicz Pruszków at 61%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Znicz Pruszków 1st on 34, Sokół Kleczew 14th on 19.
Form
Znicz Pruszków, last six: D L L W W W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Podhale Nowy Targ. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sokół Kleczew have four wins from their last six (W W W W D L). Latest: 3–2 at home to Sandecja Nowy Sącz. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Znicz Pruszków 2.16 · Sokół Kleczew 1.09 · total 3.25. High total: over 2.5 63%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Znicz Pruszków to win, probability 61%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Sokół Kleczew. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
II Liga East table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Znicz Pruszków | 16 | +12 | 34 |
| 2 |  Górnik Łęczna | 16 | +19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Tychy 71 | 14 | +11 | 27 |
| 4 |  Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 5 |  Podhale Nowy Targ | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |  Lechia Zielona Góra | 16 | -1 | 25 |
| 7 |  Chojniczanka Chojnice | 16 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 |  Legia Warszawa II | 15 | +5 | 22 |
| 9 |  Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 15 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Olimpia Grudziądz | 15 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 |  Hutnik Kraków | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 12 |  Avia Świdnik | 16 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 |  Stal Stalowa Wola | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Sokół Kleczew | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 15 |  Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 15 | +1 | 18 |
| 16 |  Świt Skolwin | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 17 |  Śląsk Wrocław II | 16 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 |  Resovia Rzeszów | 15 | -16 | 6 |
More II Liga East predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Kleczew?
The Model pick is Znicz Pruszków to win with a model probability of 61, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Znicz Pruszków v Sokół Kleczew probabilities?
Znicz Pruszków win 61%, draw 22%, Sokół Kleczew win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Kleczew?
Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Sokół Kleczew is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Kleczew?
Znicz Pruszków 2.16, Sokół Kleczew 1.09 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Znicz Pruszków vs Sokół Kleczew?
Friday 13 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Stadion MZOS Znicz – II Liga East.