- λ home
- 0.90
- λ away
- 1.78
- Σλ total
- 2.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 0–1 12.2%
Rubin vs Zenit prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Rubin 15% · draw 24% · Zenit 61%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Rubin v Zenit: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Rubin v Zenit are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin (home) | 1.40 | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.96 |
| Zenit (away) | 1.26 | 1.46 | 0.91 | 1.67 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.40 × 0.82 × 0.83 ≈ 0.96
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.82 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.64 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.90, λaway = 1.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 18.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.3%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 12.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Rubin | 21.2% | 5.0% | 15.6% | 15.1% |
| X Draw | 25.5% | 22.0% | 22.9% | 23.6% |
| 2 Zenit | 53.3% | 73.0% | 61.5% | 61.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.042 → 4.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Rubin | 15.1% | 6.63 | 6.15 | 16.3% | -7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -0.9% | |
| 2 · Zenit | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -4.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 38.7% | 2.59 | 2.51 | 39.8% | -2.9% | |
| X2 | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -3.2% | |
| 12 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Rubin | 19.8% | 5.06 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Zenit | 80.2% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -13.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -3.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -5.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.4% | 3.53 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -9.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.98 | 50.5% | +8.9% | |
| BTTS no | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -21.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.1% | 5.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.550 × 1.98 − 1 = +0.089 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.091 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Rubin | Zenit |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLLL | DWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Zenit favoured on the road at 61% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Rubin 8th on 18, Zenit 1st on 31.
Form
Sequence for Rubin: W W L L L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Lokomotiv. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Zenit: D W W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to FC Rostov. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Rubin 0.90 · Zenit 1.78 · total 2.68. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.98 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Rubin 1–2 Zenit. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Premier League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit | 14 | +17 | 31 |
| 2 |  Dynamo | 14 | +10 | 31 |
| 3 |  Spartak Moscow | 14 | +16 | 29 |
| 4 |  FC Krasnodar | 14 | +7 | 26 |
| 5 |  CSKA Moscow | 14 | +7 | 26 |
| 6 |  FC Rostov | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 |  Krylia Sovetov | 14 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Rubin | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 9 |  Baltika | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 10 |  FC Orenburg | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 14 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 |  Akhmat | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Rodina Moskva | 14 | -14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Akron | 14 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 |  Lokomotiv | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 |  Fakel | 14 | -14 | 6 |
More Premier League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Rubin vs Zenit?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.98 by the bookmakers.
What are the Rubin v Zenit probabilities?
Rubin win 15%, draw 24%, Zenit win 61%.
What is the most probable score for Rubin vs Zenit?
Rubin 1–2 Zenit is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Rubin vs Zenit?
Rubin 0.90, Zenit 1.78 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Rubin vs Zenit?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 15:30 WAT, at Ak Bars Arena – Premier League.