- λ home
- 0.85
- λ away
- 2.06
- Σλ total
- 2.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 0–2 11.6%
Humenné vs Šamorín prediction & xG model: Šamorín to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Humenné 14% · draw 20% · Šamorín 65%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Humenné v Šamorín: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Humenné v Šamorín are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.84 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.95 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.85, λaway = 2.06
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 65.4%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Humenné | – | 10.0% | 20.2% | 14.3% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 23.7% | 20.4% |
| 2 Šamorín | – | 72.0% | 56.0% | 65.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Humenné | 14.3% | 6.99 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -37.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.4% | 4.90 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -23.4% | |
| 2 · Šamorín pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.59 | 62.9% | +3.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.04 | 49.0% | -29.2% | |
| X2 | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -4.0% | |
| 12 | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Humenné | 18.0% | 5.57 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Šamorín | 82.0% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -11.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -9.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.11 | 47.4% | -7.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -13.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -7.9% | |
| BTTS no | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.06 | 48.5% | -10.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.7% | 6.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.2% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.59 − 1 = +0.038 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.064 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Humenné | Šamorín |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDWLL | WDWDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Šamorín 65%, Humenné 14%. Standings: Humenné 14th on 13, Šamorín 1st on 36.
Form
Humenné, last six: L D D W L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Tatran Prešov. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Šamorín: W D W D W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 5–3 away at Malženice. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Humenné 0, Šamorín 2, drawn 0, 3.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Šamorín 2–1 Humenné. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Humenné 0.85 · Šamorín 2.06 · total 2.90. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Šamorín to win, probability 65%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Humenné 0–2 Šamorín. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Oct 2026Šamorín2–1Humenné
- 1 Aug 2026Šamorín3–1Humenné
2. Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Šamorín | 16 | +13 | 36 |
| 2 |  Petržalka | 16 | +13 | 33 |
| 3 |  Považská Bystrica | 16 | +3 | 29 |
| 4 |  Tatran Prešov | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 5 |  Pohronie | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 6 |  Galanta | 16 | +1 | 26 |
| 7 |  Liptovský Mikuláš | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 8 |  Inter Bratislava | 16 | +13 | 24 |
| 9 |  Žilina II | 16 | +2 | 24 |
| 10 |  Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 16 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 |  Slovan Bratislava II | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 12 |  Malženice | 16 | -4 | 16 |
| 13 |  Zlaté Moravce | 16 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 |  Humenné | 16 | -12 | 13 |
| 15 |  Lokomotíva Zvolen | 16 | -13 | 9 |
| 16 |  MFK Bytča | 16 | -31 | 9 |
More 2. Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Humenné vs Šamorín?
The Model pick is Šamorín to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.59 by the bookmakers.
What are the Humenné v Šamorín probabilities?
Humenné win 14%, draw 20%, Šamorín win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Humenné vs Šamorín?
Humenné 0–2 Šamorín is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Humenné vs Šamorín?
Humenné 0.85, Šamorín 2.06 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Humenné vs Šamorín?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Humenne Football Stadium – 2. Liga.