- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 0.67
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.0%
Xelajú vs Guastatoya prediction & xG model: Xelajú to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Xelajú 67% · draw 22% · Guastatoya 11%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Xelajú v Guastatoya: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Xelajú v Guastatoya are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.66 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 0.67
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Xelajú | – | 71.0% | 62.6% | 67.5% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 23.7% | 21.6% |
| 2 Guastatoya | – | 9.0% | 13.7% | 11.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Xelajú pick | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -2.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.6% | 4.64 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -18.1% | |
| 2 · Guastatoya | 11.0% | 9.13 | 6.60 | 15.2% | -27.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.0% | 1.12 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -7.4% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | 3.07 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -22.6% | |
| 12 | 78.4% | 1.27 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -9.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Xelajú | 86.0% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Guastatoya | 14.0% | 7.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 3.78 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -11.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 2.02 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -8.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -8.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -12.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.96 | 51.0% | +2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -17.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.2% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.1% | 8.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.675 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Xelajú | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWLW | WLDLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Xelajú at 67%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Xelajú 1st on 39, Guastatoya 7th on 31.
Form
Xelajú have four wins from their last six (W W D W L W). Latest: 1–0 away at Cobán Imperial. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Guastatoya, last six: W L D L D D – one win in total. Latest: 4–0 at home to Suchitepéquez. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Xelajú 0, Guastatoya 1, drawn 1, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Guastatoya 2–1 Xelajú. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Xelajú 1.97 · Guastatoya 0.67 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Selection: Xelajú to win, probability 67%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Xelajú 1–0 Guastatoya. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Sep 2026Guastatoya2–1Xelajú
- 29 Mar 2026Xelajú1–1Guastatoya
Liga Nacional table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Xelajú vs Guastatoya?
The Model pick is Xelajú to win with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Xelajú v Guastatoya probabilities?
Xelajú win 67%, draw 22%, Guastatoya win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Xelajú vs Guastatoya?
Xelajú 1–0 Guastatoya is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Xelajú vs Guastatoya?
Xelajú 1.97, Guastatoya 0.67 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Xelajú vs Guastatoya?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Estadio Mario Camposeco – Liga Nacional.