- λ home
- 1.99
- λ away
- 0.69
- Σλ total
- 2.68
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.6%
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Antigua GFC v Malacateco: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Antigua GFC v Malacateco are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (35 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antigua GFC (home) | 1.68 | 1.26 | 0.99 | 2.09 |
| Malacateco (away) | 0.90 | 0.76 | 0.90 | 0.62 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.26 × 0.99 ≈ 2.09
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.71 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.69 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.68 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.99, λaway = 0.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Antigua GFC | 70.8% | 71.0% | 62.6% | 67.5% |
| X Draw | 19.6% | 19.0% | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| 2 Malacateco | 9.6% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 11.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Antigua GFC | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -2.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -20.9% | |
| 2 · Malacateco | 11.4% | 8.78 | 6.77 | 14.8% | -22.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.6% | 1.13 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -7.8% | |
| X2 | 32.5% | 3.07 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -22.6% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Antigua GFC | 85.6% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Malacateco | 14.4% | 6.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.8% | 3.87 | 3.42 | 29.2% | -11.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -8.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -8.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.0% | 3.45 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -11.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -8.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.93 | 51.8% | +6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -21.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.2% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.3% | 8.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.552 × 1.93 − 1 = +0.065 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.070 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Antigua GFC | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWDW | LLDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Antigua GFC 67% to win. Standings: Antigua GFC 5th on 34, Malacateco 10th on 22.
Form
Antigua GFC, last six: W W L W D W – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Aurora. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Malacateco have two wins from their last six (L L D W L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Suchitepéquez. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Antigua GFC 2, Malacateco 0, drawn 1, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Malacateco 0–2 Antigua GFC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Antigua GFC 1.99 · Malacateco 0.69 · total 2.68. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.93 v fair 1.81. Most probable score: Antigua GFC 2–1 Malacateco. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Sep 2026Malacateco0–2Antigua GFC
- 20 Apr 2026Antigua GFC2–1Malacateco
- 1 Mar 2026Malacateco2–2Antigua GFC
Liga Nacional table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Antigua GFC vs Malacateco?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.93 by the bookmakers.
What are the Antigua GFC v Malacateco probabilities?
Antigua GFC win 67%, draw 21%, Malacateco win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Antigua GFC vs Malacateco?
Antigua GFC 2–1 Malacateco is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Antigua GFC vs Malacateco?
Antigua GFC 1.99, Malacateco 0.69 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Antigua GFC vs Malacateco?
Monday 9 November 2026, 01:00 WAT, at Estadio Pensativo – Liga Nacional.