- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 0.84
- Σλ total
- 2.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.1%
Slovan Ljubljana vs Krško prediction & xG model: Slovan Ljubljana to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Slovan Ljubljana 63% · draw 21% · Krško 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Slovan Ljubljana v Krško: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Slovan Ljubljana v Krško are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.68 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.84 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 0.84
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Slovan Ljubljana | – | 70.0% | 53.4% | 63.0% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 24.5% | 20.7% |
| 2 Krško | – | 12.0% | 22.0% | 16.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Slovan Ljubljana pick | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +5.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3.64 | 27.5% | -24.5% | |
| 2 · Krško | 16.2% | 6.17 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -34.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.5% | |
| X2 | 37.0% | 2.71 | 1.92 | 52.1% | -29.0% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Slovan Ljubljana | 79.5% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Krško | 20.5% | 4.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -10.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | 1.99 | 50.3% | -6.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.17 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -13.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -1.3% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -18.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.7% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.630 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.079 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Slovan Ljubljana | Krško |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLDW | LLLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slovan Ljubljana at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Slovan Ljubljana 10th on 18, Krško 15th on 9.
Form
Slovan Ljubljana, last six: D L L L D W – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Jesenice. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Krško have zero wins from their last six (L L L D L L). Latest: 1–3 at home to Rudar. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Krško 1–1 Slovan Ljubljana. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Slovan Ljubljana 1.92 · Krško 0.84 · total 2.77. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Selection: Slovan Ljubljana to win, probability 63%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Slovan Ljubljana 1–0 Krško. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 Apr 2026Krško1–1Slovan Ljubljana
2. SNL table
League page →
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Slovan Ljubljana vs Krško?
The Model pick is Slovan Ljubljana to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Slovan Ljubljana v Krško probabilities?
Slovan Ljubljana win 63%, draw 21%, Krško win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Slovan Ljubljana vs Krško?
Slovan Ljubljana 1–0 Krško is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Slovan Ljubljana vs Krško?
Slovan Ljubljana 1.92, Krško 0.84 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Slovan Ljubljana vs Krško?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – 2. SNL.