- λ home
- 2.30
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 3.60
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.4%
Charleroi vs St. Truiden prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Charleroi 56% · draw 21% · St. Truiden 23%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Charleroi v St. Truiden: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Charleroi v St. Truiden are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi (home) | 1.82 | 1.25 | 1.11 | 2.51 |
| St. Truiden (away) | 1.31 | 1.17 | 0.84 | 1.29 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.82 × 1.25 × 1.11 ≈ 2.51
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.80 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.77 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.16 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.60 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.30, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Charleroi | 63.6% | 61.0% | 47.4% | 56.2% |
| X Draw | 18.6% | 16.0% | 25.2% | 20.7% |
| 2 St. Truiden | 17.8% | 23.0% | 27.4% | 23.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.104 → 10.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Charleroi | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +7.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -25.3% | |
| 2 · St. Truiden | 23.1% | 4.34 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -23.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.0% | |
| X2 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -24.2% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Charleroi | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB St. Truiden | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -3.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.9% | 6.72 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -18.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +0.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -16.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +0.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -13.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 66.7% | 0.0% | |
| BTTS no | 33.4% | 3.00 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -16.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.3% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.4% | 4.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.666 × 1.50 − 1 = 0.000 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Charleroi | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDWW | WDLLWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Charleroi ahead at 56%, against 23% for St. Truiden and 21% for the draw. Standings: Charleroi 4th on 27, St. Truiden 12th on 11.
Form
Charleroi have four wins from their last six (W W L D W W). Latest: 5–1 away at KVC Westerlo. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for St. Truiden: W D L L W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Zulte Waregem. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Charleroi 2.30 · St. Truiden 1.30 · total 3.60. Goals expected – 65% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 67%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Charleroi 2–1 St. Truiden. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Jupiler Pro League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union St. Gilloise | 11 | +23 | 29 |
| 2 |  Club Brugge KV | 11 | +18 | 28 |
| 3 |  Gent | 11 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 |  Charleroi | 11 | +13 | 27 |
| 5 |  Anderlecht | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 6 |  Lommel United | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Genk | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Standard Liege | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  KVC Westerlo | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 |  OH Leuven | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  KV Mechelen | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 12 |  St. Truiden | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 |  Antwerp | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 |  Zulte Waregem | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 15 |  SK Beveren | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 16 |  Cercle Brugge | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 |  RAAL La Louvière | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 11 | -19 | 4 |
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Charleroi v St. Truiden probabilities?
Charleroi win 56%, draw 21%, St. Truiden win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 2–1 St. Truiden is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Charleroi 2.30, St. Truiden 1.30 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Charleroi vs St. Truiden?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Stade du Pays de Charleroi – Jupiler Pro League.