- λ home
- 0.97
- λ away
- 2.02
- Σλ total
- 2.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 0–2 10.2%
Radomlje vs Celje prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Radomlje v Celje: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Radomlje v Celje are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (25 and 40 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje (home) | 1.66 | 0.92 | 0.68 | 1.04 |
| Celje (away) | 1.38 | 1.17 | 1.26 | 2.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.92 × 0.68 ≈ 1.04
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.15 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.97, λaway = 2.02
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 61.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Radomlje | 18.4% | 20.0% | 18.1% | 19.2% |
| X Draw | 22.0% | 15.0% | 20.9% | 17.5% |
| 2 Celje | 59.6% | 65.0% | 61.1% | 63.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Radomlje | 19.2% | 5.21 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -4.0% | |
| X · Draw | 17.5% | 5.73 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -24.4% | |
| 2 · Celje | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -6.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -12.0% | |
| X2 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -10.3% | |
| 12 | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Radomlje | 23.3% | 4.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Celje | 76.7% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.3% | 4.92 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -8.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -9.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.1% | 2.62 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -14.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -2.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.0% | |
| BTTS no | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -15.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.0% | 5.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.000 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Radomlje | Celje |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWDDL | WWDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Celje 63%, Radomlje 19%. Standings: Radomlje 10th on 8, Celje 3rd on 23.
Form
Sequence for Radomlje: L D W D D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–5 away at Aluminij. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Celje, last six: W W D W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Sturm Graz. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Radomlje 0.97 · Celje 2.02 · total 2.99. Goals expected – 59% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Radomlje 1–2 Celje. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
1. SNL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Koper | 15 | +13 | 29 |
| 2 |  Maribor | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Celje | 14 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Olimpija Ljubljana | 15 | +4 | 23 |
| 5 |  Bravo | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Nafta | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 |  Aluminij | 15 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brinje-Grosuplje | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 9 |  Mura | 15 | -11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Radomlje | 14 | -15 | 8 |
More 1. SNL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Radomlje vs Celje?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Radomlje v Celje probabilities?
Radomlje win 19%, draw 17%, Celje win 63%.
What is the most probable score for Radomlje vs Celje?
Radomlje 1–2 Celje is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Radomlje vs Celje?
Radomlje 0.97, Celje 2.02 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Radomlje vs Celje?
Sunday 8 November 2026, 17:30 WAT – 1. SNL.