- λ home
- 1.75
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.58
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.3%
Celje vs Aluminij prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Celje v Aluminij: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Celje v Aluminij are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (40 and 34 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje (home) | 1.66 | 1.17 | 0.77 | 1.50 |
| Aluminij (away) | 1.38 | 0.93 | 0.68 | 0.87 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.17 × 0.77 ≈ 1.50
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.37 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.58 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.58 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.75, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Celje | 51.0% | 62.0% | 58.3% | 60.5% |
| X Draw | 27.6% | 20.0% | 22.6% | 21.1% |
| 2 Aluminij | 21.4% | 18.0% | 19.0% | 18.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Celje | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -6.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.74 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -15.6% | |
| 2 · Aluminij | 18.4% | 5.42 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -12.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.6% | |
| X2 | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -9.1% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Celje | 76.6% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Aluminij | 23.4% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.1% | 3.69 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.0% | 3.85 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -4.9% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -10.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.0% | 6.24 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.595 × 1.60 − 1 = -0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Celje | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLWL | DWDLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Celje 60% to win. Standings: Celje 3rd on 23, Aluminij 7th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Celje: D L L L W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Mura. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Aluminij have two wins from their last six (D W D L L W). Latest: 2–2 away at Maribor. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Previous 2: Celje 1, Aluminij 1, drawn 0, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Aluminij 0–2 Celje. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Celje 1.75 · Aluminij 0.83 · total 2.58. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Celje 2–1 Aluminij. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Sep 2026Aluminij0–2Celje
- 5 Mar 2026Aluminij2–1Celje
1. SNL table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Koper | 15 | +13 | 29 |
| 2 |  Maribor | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 3 |  Celje | 14 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Olimpija Ljubljana | 15 | +4 | 23 |
| 5 |  Bravo | 15 | +1 | 23 |
| 6 |  Nafta | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 |  Aluminij | 15 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 |  Brinje-Grosuplje | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 9 |  Mura | 15 | -11 | 14 |
| 10 |  Radomlje | 14 | -15 | 8 |
More 1. SNL predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Celje vs Aluminij?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Celje v Aluminij probabilities?
Celje win 60%, draw 21%, Aluminij win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Celje vs Aluminij?
Celje 2–1 Aluminij is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Celje vs Aluminij?
Celje 1.75, Aluminij 0.83 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Celje vs Aluminij?
Saturday 10 October 2026, 16:30 WAT – 1. SNL.