- λ home
- 1.26
- λ away
- 2.04
- Σλ total
- 3.31
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.7%
Stirling Albion vs Elgin City prediction & xG model: Elgin City to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Stirling Albion v Elgin City: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipElgin City to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Stirling Albion v Elgin City are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling Albion (home) | 1.66 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.70 |
| Elgin City (away) | 1.38 | 1.11 | 1.32 | 2.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.01 × 1.01 ≈ 1.70
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.73 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.65 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.02 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.31 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.26, λaway = 2.04
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 23.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Stirling Albion | 32.6% | 25.0% | 29.0% | 26.7% |
| X Draw | 22.0% | 7.0% | 25.0% | 14.5% |
| 2 Elgin City | 45.4% | 68.0% | 46.1% | 58.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Stirling Albion | 26.7% | 3.75 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -17.3% | |
| X · Draw | 14.5% | 6.88 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -47.7% | |
| 2 · Elgin City pick | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +14.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.2% | 2.43 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -29.9% | |
| X2 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.1% | |
| 12 | 85.5% | 1.17 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +4.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Stirling Albion | 31.2% | 3.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Elgin City | 68.8% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.49 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -18.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -12.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -0.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -9.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -5.0% | |
| BTTS no | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -9.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.6% | 4.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.6% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.588 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.146 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.154 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Stirling Albion | Elgin City |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLDD | LLWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 83% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 27%. Standings: Stirling Albion 8th on 15, Elgin City 3rd on 21.
Form
Stirling Albion, last six: L L W L D D – one win in total. Latest: 0–3 away at Stranraer. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Elgin City, last six: L L W W D L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Dumbarton. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Elgin City 4–0 Stirling Albion. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Stirling Albion 1.26 · Elgin City 2.04 · total 3.31. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Elgin City to win, probability 59%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Stirling Albion 1–2 Elgin City. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 29 Aug 2026Elgin City4–0Stirling Albion
League Two table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stranraer | 13 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  Clyde | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Elgin City | 13 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 |  Spartans | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Kelty Hearts | 13 | -5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Dumbarton | 13 | -5 | 16 |
| 7 |  Edinburgh City | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 |  Stirling Albion | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 9 |  Forfar Athletic | 13 | -11 | 12 |
| 10 |  Annan Athletic | 13 | -12 | 9 |
More League Two predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Stirling Albion vs Elgin City?
The Model pick is Elgin City to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Stirling Albion v Elgin City probabilities?
Stirling Albion win 27%, draw 15%, Elgin City win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Stirling Albion vs Elgin City?
Stirling Albion 1–2 Elgin City is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Stirling Albion vs Elgin City?
Stirling Albion 1.26, Elgin City 2.04 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Stirling Albion vs Elgin City?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Forthbank Stadium – League Two.